Experts and lawmakers speculate that President Trump’s military actions against drug trafficking in the Caribbean may be aimed at pressuring Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down.
President Donald Trump recently stated that Venezuela is “feeling heat” as his administration intensifies its efforts against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean. In just the past week, U.S. forces have targeted at least two vessels. While Trump claims these strikes aim to reduce the influx of drugs into the United States, experts and some lawmakers suggest that the underlying goal is to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to relinquish power.
“The Trump administration is likely attempting to force Maduro to voluntarily leave office through a series of diplomatic moves, and now military action and the threat thereof,” said Brandan Buck, a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute, in an email to Fox News Digital. He added that whether this constitutes a ‘regime change’ is a matter of semantics.
The Trump administration has consistently refused to recognize Maduro as a legitimate leader, labeling him instead as the head of a drug cartel. In August, the administration increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, branding him “one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world.”
Despite the escalating military actions, the administration has remained tight-lipped regarding Maduro. Trump declined to answer questions about whether the CIA had the authority to “take out” Maduro but confirmed that he authorized the agency to conduct covert operations in Venezuela. This decision followed reports that Venezuela has released prisoners into the U.S. and that drugs were entering the country via sea routes from Venezuela.
In a recent statement, Trump noted that Maduro had offered the U.S. access to Venezuelan oil and other natural resources, claiming the Venezuelan leader did not want to “f*** around” with the U.S.
However, experts like Buck caution that these military strikes are unlikely to significantly disrupt the flow of drugs into the U.S. “It is more likely that those strikes are part of this incremental effort to dislodge Maduro than merely an effort to wage war on the cartels,” he explained. He pointed out that Pacific and overland routes through Mexico are far more prolific, and Venezuela itself plays a relatively minor role, especially concerning fentanyl trafficking.
The Trump administration has ramped up its maritime forces to combat drug threats, bolstering naval assets in the Caribbean in recent months. This includes the deployment of several U.S. Navy guided missile destroyers to enhance counter-narcotics efforts in the region, a strategy that began in August.
Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that the administration hopes the increased military presence will encourage the Venezuelan military to take action against Maduro. “What President Trump is hoping is that this deployment will signal to the Venezuelan military that they should rise up against Maduro themselves,” Ramsey said in an email. “The problem is that we haven’t seen this approach bear fruit in twenty years of trying. Maduro is terrible at governing, but good at keeping his upper ranks fat and happy while the people starve.”
Ramsey emphasized the need for a clear roadmap or blueprint for a transition that could appeal to the ruling party and those around Maduro who might secretly desire change but need assurance of a future in a democratic Venezuela.
As the Trump administration adopts a hard-line approach to combat the flow of drugs into the U.S., it has designated various drug cartel groups, including Tren de Aragua and Sinaloa, as foreign terrorist organizations as of February. Additionally, the White House informed lawmakers on September 30 that the U.S. is now engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug smugglers, having conducted at least six strikes against vessels off the coast of Venezuela. The most recent strike resulted in the seizure of survivors, marking a shift in the nature of these military actions.
Concerns regarding the legality of these strikes have been raised by lawmakers from both parties. Senators Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) filed a war powers resolution in September aimed at preventing U.S. forces from engaging in “hostilities” against certain non-state organizations. This resolution failed in the Senate by a narrow margin of 51–48 on October 8, with Republicans Rand Paul of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voting alongside their Democratic colleagues.
On Friday, Schiff, Kaine, and Paul introduced a more targeted war powers resolution to prevent U.S. armed forces from participating in “hostilities” specifically against Venezuela. The lawmakers expressed concern over Trump’s comments suggesting potential land operations in Venezuela. “The Trump administration has made it clear they may launch military action inside Venezuela’s borders and won’t stop at boat strikes in the Caribbean,” Schiff stated. “In recent weeks, we have seen increasingly concerning movements and reporting that undermine claims that this is merely about stopping drug smugglers. Congress has not authorized military force against Venezuela, and we must assert our authority to prevent the United States from being dragged—intentionally or accidentally—into full-fledged war in South America.”
When questioned about lawmakers’ concerns regarding the legality of the strikes, Trump dismissed them, asserting that lawmakers were informed the vessels carried drugs. “But they are given information that they were loaded up with drugs,” Trump said. “And that’s the thing that matters. When they’re loaded up with drugs, they’re fair game. And every one of those ships were and they’re not ships, they’re boats.”
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