The nation witnessed a significant shift to the right in the 2024 presidential election compared to the 2020 race. Four years ago, President Joe Biden secured six out of seven critical battleground states, but this time, all those states moved toward President-elect Donald Trump. Furthermore, Trump is on course to win the popular vote, a stark contrast to Biden’s 7-million-vote lead in 2020.
Trump Dominates the Suburbs
Suburban areas played a decisive role in the election outcome. According to exit polls, over half of the voters in 2024 resided in suburban regions, making these areas pivotal swing zones in both the presidential race and closely contested House districts. Historically, the suburban victor has won 11 of the past 12 presidential elections, dating back to 1980. This year, Trump emerged victorious in the suburbs, securing 51% of the vote compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 47%.
Harris had hoped to mobilize suburban women in key swing states to her advantage. However, the anticipated support did not materialize. Exit polls revealed that Trump won white suburban women by a margin of seven points and white suburban men by a significant 27 points. While some suburban households had split votes, it wasn’t enough to propel Harris to victory.
In several swing states, Trump’s gains in suburban areas were substantial, based on near-final vote counts. The Philadelphia suburbs and two major counties near Detroit saw a net swing of nearly 60,000 votes in Trump’s favor. Similarly, in Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—Trump gained over 10,000 votes. Georgia’s suburban counties near Atlanta also leaned toward Trump, contributing to his overall success.
Interestingly, in certain Atlanta metro counties, Harris outperformed Biden’s 2020 numbers, and her losses in the Charlotte metro area were not as severe as in the industrial Midwest. These trends offer Democrats a glimmer of hope for the Sun Belt’s future, even as the Midwest becomes increasingly challenging terrain.
Rural Areas Deepen Their Support for Trump
Rural America, long a Republican stronghold, turned out in record numbers for Trump. In 2024, he won 64% of the rural vote, the highest margin for any candidate since 1980. This performance surpassed even Trump’s previous high of 61% in 2016.
Trump’s dominance in rural regions helped him secure wins in key battlegrounds and bolster his popular vote tally in traditionally red states like Texas. In Texas alone, Trump gained a net of over 900,000 votes compared to 2020, and in Florida, his lead expanded by more than 1 million votes.
These gains were partly driven by Trump’s significant inroads with Latino voters, particularly in South Florida and South Texas. The shift among Latino communities further solidified his position in these critical states.
Harris Falls Short in Urban Centers
Urban areas, typically Democratic strongholds, presented challenges for Harris. While large cities remain central to Democratic success in swing states, Harris secured just 59% of the urban vote. This figure lagged behind the performances of Biden, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton in previous elections.
This underperformance contributed significantly to Harris’s defeats in key states. For instance, in Maricopa County, Arizona, which encompasses Phoenix, Harris received approximately 61,000 fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. In contrast, Trump gained about 56,000 votes, resulting in a 117,000-vote swing in a single county.
A similar trend was observed in Wayne County, Michigan, home to Detroit. Harris’s support fell by more than 60,000 votes, while Trump gained roughly 24,000. Wayne County is home to a significant Black voter base, as well as the nation’s largest Arab American population in Dearborn, which numbers around 100,000. Many Arab American voters expressed dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s stance on the Gaza conflict, a factor that may have impacted Harris’s performance in the region.
The story was much the same in other major urban centers across swing states, including Las Vegas and Philadelphia. Even in traditionally blue states, Harris struggled to match Biden’s 2020 numbers. In New York, for example, Harris’s vote total declined by more than 800,000 compared to Biden’s performance four years earlier.
A Broader Electoral Landscape
The 2024 election results highlighted stark regional and demographic divides in American politics. Trump’s ability to consolidate support in rural areas and among suburban voters proved decisive, while Harris’s challenges in urban centers and among key demographic groups weakened her chances of victory.
These shifts suggest a changing political landscape, with Republicans making gains in areas where Democrats traditionally performed well, and Democrats focusing on emerging opportunities in the Sun Belt. As America moves forward, both parties will likely analyze these trends to shape their strategies for future elections.
