Trump and Harris Neck-and-Neck as Election Nears, Catholics Show Divided Support

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election nears its final stretch, a new Pew Research Center poll reveals a close race between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll highlights a sharp divide among U.S. religious groups, especially Catholics, whose loyalties appear to be split between the two candidates. While Trump has garnered a slim majority of support from Catholic voters, Harris has maintained strong backing from key minority groups within the Catholic community.

The Pew survey, released on Monday, indicates that 52% of Catholics plan to vote for Trump, while 47% favor Harris. The slim lead for Trump is mainly attributed to his strong support among white Catholics. According to the poll, Trump commands the backing of 61% of white Catholic voters, while Harris is favored by 65% of Hispanic Catholics. These findings underscore a significant racial divide within the Catholic community, as both candidates vie for this crucial voting bloc.

The religious breakdown in the Pew survey aligns with longstanding trends in U.S. politics. “U.S. religious groups that traditionally have leaned Republican are backing former president Donald Trump by wide margins,” the poll reported, while “groups that have historically backed Democrats are mostly supporting Vice President Kamala Harris.”

Among Protestants, white evangelical Christians, a traditionally conservative group, continue to rally behind Trump. The Pew survey showed that Trump has the overwhelming support of white Protestants, another group that has leaned heavily toward Republican candidates in recent elections. Meanwhile, Harris enjoys the backing of large majorities of atheists, agnostics, and Black Protestants, with 86% of Black Protestants indicating they plan to vote for her.

This religious divide reflects the broader national picture, where Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race. According to Pew, both candidates are supported by 49% of the electorate, suggesting that the race could come down to key demographic groups, such as religious minorities and swing voters, as the election approaches.

In February, Pew conducted an earlier survey that highlighted a more unfavorable view of Trump among Catholics. At that time, 42% of Catholics held a favorable opinion of Trump, while 57% viewed him unfavorably. The shift in support for Trump among Catholics, as shown in the latest poll, suggests a potential realignment within this religious group, particularly among white Catholics.

However, not all surveys reflect the same level of Catholic support for Trump. A separate poll conducted by EWTN News and RealClear Opinion Research, released just a week prior, painted a different picture of Catholic voter preferences. In that survey, 50% of Catholics backed Harris, while only 42% supported Trump. The EWTN/RealClear poll surveyed 1,000 Catholic voters between August 28 and 30, and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The EWTN/RealClear poll also revealed significant variations in support among different racial groups within the Catholic community. Harris held a substantial lead among African American Catholics, with 82% backing her compared to just 12% supporting Trump. Similarly, Harris had the support of 58% of Catholic Asian voters, while 35% favored Trump. Meanwhile, non-Hispanic white Catholics showed a preference for Trump, with 52% supporting the former president and 42% backing Harris.

The contrasting findings between the Pew and EWTN/RealClear polls underscore the fluidity of the race and the importance of religious and racial identity in shaping voter preferences. The Pew survey, which was conducted between August 26 and September 2, had a significantly larger sample size, polling 9,720 voters, and recorded a margin of error of about 1.5 percentage points. This broader sample size provides a more comprehensive view of voter trends, though the differences between the two surveys highlight the challenges in predicting the final outcome.

Beyond the candidates themselves, the Pew poll also shed light on the key issues driving voters’ decisions in the 2024 election. According to the survey, there was widespread agreement across religious groups on the most pressing concerns. At least six in 10 registered voters from every religious group surveyed said that the economy would be a very important factor in their voting decision. Other prominent issues included health care, appointments to the Supreme Court, and foreign policy, all of which ranked as significant concerns for voters across the religious spectrum.

Despite the religious divisions, the Pew poll revealed common ground among voters on certain policy priorities. “Half or more in almost every religious group say the same about health care, Supreme Court appointments, and foreign policy,” the survey reported, suggesting that while religious identity may influence candidate preference, voters are largely united on the core issues that will shape the country’s future.

For Trump, winning over Catholic voters, particularly white Catholics, will be crucial in the final weeks of the campaign. His campaign has historically relied on the support of religious conservatives, and the Pew poll indicates that this base remains strong, particularly among white evangelical Christians and conservative Catholics. Trump’s ability to maintain and grow this support could be a decisive factor in what is shaping up to be a razor-thin election.

On the other hand, Harris’s strong performance among Hispanic and African American Catholics, as well as her overwhelming support among secular voters and Black Protestants, provides her with a solid foundation as she seeks to mobilize these key demographic groups. With both candidates polling evenly among the electorate, the outcome may ultimately depend on voter turnout and the ability of each campaign to energize its base.

As the election draws near, the battle for Catholic voters and other religious groups will likely intensify. Both Trump and Harris are seeking to secure every possible vote in what promises to be one of the most competitive and closely watched presidential elections in recent history. With the electorate so evenly divided, the Pew poll suggests that the final outcome may hinge on the preferences of religious voters, making them a critical battleground in the race for the White House.