A hattrick of record low: The rupee plunged 54 paise to provisionally close at a new all-time low of 81.63 against the US dollar on Monday. It had ended at its lowest ever on both Thursday and Friday, making Monday’s deeper plunge the third successive record low levels in three sessions.
There’s panic: It has been created by the dollar index, which has witnessed strong buying as a strong hedge against interest rate hikes and inflation cycle. The downtrend may continue for the rupee until positive triggers are not witnessed from the inflation forefront, experts feel.
The main story: The dollar has become profitable as the US Fed is hiking rates to tame inflationary trends in its market. The dollar rally reflects the ‘flight-to-safety’ approach by investors. As a result the Asian markets have become riskier and are experiencing crisis-level stress again. Two most significant Asian currencies — the yen and the yuan — have been falling under the dollar’s assault. The US is hawkish, the Asians are dovish.
RBI has a job to do: Its monetary policy committee (MPC) is meeting this week and is expected to hike rates by 50 basis points. Market experts feel this could provide some respite to the rupee but it still may lie in the 80.50-81.50 range.
Pressure on forex: RBI has been holding the rupee for quite some time through rate hikes and by selling dollars from its foreign exchange reserves. But this meant that India’s foreign exchange reserves fell below $550 billion for the first time in nearly two years last week, which marked the seventh successive week of forex decline.
And shares? The 30-share BSE index tanked 953.70 points to settle at 57,145, recovering after plummeting 1,061 points during the day. The NSE Nifty fell 311.05 points to close at 17,016. In the last four sessions, the Sensex has lost about 2,575 points and the market capitalisation of the BSE-listed companies reduced by over Rs 13.3 lakh crore. (Times Of India)