High crude oil prices combined with fears of rising inflation are expected to keep the Indian rupee under pressure, next week. Lately, the Brent crude oil price has remained elevated due to the Russian-Ukrainian war. The price has hovered in the range of $100-$110 in the last few weeks.
“Rupee has been under pressure due to rising US bond yields, inflation and high crude oil prices,” said Sajal Gupta Head Fx & Rates Edelweiss.
“These circumstances are going to be tough for the Indian rupee to appreciate. Expect rupee to trade between 75.50 and 76.25 in the next week.” Last week, the rupee closed at 75.90 to a greenback.
“Next week is a relatively shorter week but market participants will be keeping an eye on the inflation and industrial production number to gauge a view for the currency,” said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“Expectation is that inflation could remain elevated following the recent rise in energy and food prices. On the other hand, industrial production could grow at a slower pace in January and could further weigh on the currency.”
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) on March 12.
On the other hand, expectations of India Inc’s healthy Q4FY22 results season should attract fresh equity focused foreign funds which might cub any sharp weakness in the Indian rupee versus the US dollar.
“Dollar index have surged past week and it is now trading near crucial psychological mark of 100,” said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
“Rupee is likely to consolidate next week on back of improving sentiments for equity markets. In near term, spot USD INR expected to trade in the range of 76.20 to 75.70. with bias towards appreciation.”