The next leader of the Roman Catholic Church could come from Africa, Italy, Sri Lanka, or even the United States. However, experts suggest that no matter where the new pontiff hails from, the person elected to succeed Pope Francis—who died Monday at age 88—will likely steer the Church back toward the ideological center.
Pope Francis, who led the Catholic Church for 12 years and represented 1.4 billion faithful globally, often sparked controversy among traditionalists with his progressive stances. His support for LGBTQ Catholics and decision to restrict the traditional Latin Mass were among the reforms that drew criticism from conservatives within the Church.
Now, with his passing, the College of Cardinals faces the task of choosing a successor who could bring a new tone to Church leadership. “Whoever is elected will be of a centrally conservative disposition; after 12 years of Pope Francis ‘stirring things up,’” said Serenhedd James, editor of Britain’s Catholic Herald magazine. “I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach.”
Rev. Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of Our Sunday Visitor magazine, echoed a similar sentiment. He said the next pontiff is likely to bring “a renewed clarity of doctrine” and focus more on internal Church governance than external engagement.
The process of electing a new pope will begin within 20 days of Francis’ death. A conclave of 120 cardinals under the age of 80—out of the 138 who make up the full College of Cardinals—will gather in the Vatican to choose the next spiritual leader of the Church.
The voting process includes four ballots per day until a new pope is chosen. If 30 rounds pass without a result, voting narrows to the top two candidates. One of them must receive a two-thirds majority to be elected.
Francis, during his papacy, significantly reshaped the College of Cardinals by appointing members from diverse backgrounds and perspectives. Briscoe noted that the new members are “extremely familiar with each other” due to this shift in leadership style. He also pointed out that Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the 91-year-old dean of the College, may quietly influence the proceedings. Despite his age, Re was kept in his position by Francis and has strong knowledge of both older and newer cardinals.
Several candidates are seen as front-runners to become the next pope. These names have been ranked by Italian Vatican expert Gaetano Masciullo and Vatican analysts Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna of the College of Cardinals Report. The list includes individuals from a range of theological viewpoints, from progressive to conservative.
Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, aged 67, is often seen as a protégé of Pope Francis. However, his standing may have been weakened after alleged “shortcomings” were uncovered during his leadership of Vatican charity Caritas International. According to Masciullo, Tagle “has expressed very ‘open’ opinions on issues such as Communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality, suggesting that universal moral principles may ‘not apply in all situations.’”
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, who currently serves as the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is another top contender. An Italian with diplomatic experience, Parolin is considered a moderate figure. Though he has taken some conservative positions, his willingness to cooperate with Communist China has raised eyebrows. Nevertheless, he is seen as having a “high chance” of being elected due to his broad international experience and ties.
From France, Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, is reportedly a favorite of Francis. Aveline is described as an intellectual and personable figure. Masciullo, however, labeled him a “dangerous contender” due to his popularity among left-leaning Church circles. He is known for advocating for strong decentralization within the Catholic Church, a position that could prove controversial.
Another notable candidate is Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71, from the Netherlands. A trained physician and theologian, Eijk strictly adheres to Catholic doctrine, even when his views are unpopular. He opposes same-sex blessings, gender-transition therapies, and the ordination of women. His firm stances on doctrine are likely to attract support from conservative cardinals. His administrative skills also enhance his credibility as a potential pope.
Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77, serves as the Archbishop of Colombo in Sri Lanka. His election would mark a historic elevation of an Asian leader to the papacy. Known for aligning with both the late Pope Benedict XVI’s theological conservatism and Francis’ advocacy for the poor and environmental issues, Ranjith could represent a unifying figure. Masciullo remarked that many consider Ranjith “as perfectly aligned with Benedict XVI.” His origin from South Asia, a region where Catholicism is rapidly growing, adds to his appeal.
Then there’s Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, a deeply traditionalist former Vatican official from Guinea. Sarah has vocally opposed Pope Francis’ limitations on the Latin Mass and the Church’s openness to blessings for same-sex couples. These views have made him a favorite among the Church’s conservative factions. If elected, Sarah would become the first African pope since the fifth century.
While these six cardinals are widely viewed as leading candidates, it is technically possible for any baptized male Catholic to be elected pope. Canon law expert Edward Peters noted that if a non-ordained Catholic were chosen, they would need to be ordained and elevated to the role of bishop before their papacy could be formalized.
However, most experts agree that the election of a non-cardinal is nearly impossible. Christopher Bellitto, a history professor at Kean University, bluntly stated, “Odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected … are lower than a snowball’s chance in hell.” He explained that the last time such a choice was made was in 1378, which sparked the Western Schism, a crisis that saw rival claimants to the papacy and was only resolved in 1417.
Bellitto also referenced another instance from 1294, when a hermit named Celestine V was elected pope despite his lack of experience. Celestine later resigned, and the Italian poet Dante placed him “at the doorway of hell” in his literary work Inferno as a symbol of weak leadership.
The upcoming conclave is therefore expected to remain within traditional bounds, with the cardinals choosing one of their own to lead the Catholic Church into its next chapter. Despite the global reach of Catholicism and the potential for surprise, the consensus among Vatican watchers is that the new pope will likely represent a more centrist, stabilizing force after the eventful and reform-minded tenure of Pope Francis.