Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s established camaraderie with President Donald Trump faces a significant test as he begins his visit to Washington on Wednesday. Modi is keen to ensure India avoids tariffs that have been imposed on other nations and to mitigate the risk of additional taxes on Indian imports.
India, recognized as a crucial strategic ally of the United States, has not yet been subjected to any new tariffs. The two leaders have nurtured a personal bond, with Modi—often criticized for India’s democratic decline—welcoming Trump’s return to the White House. Modi aims to recalibrate India’s relationship with the West, especially in light of his refusal to denounce Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Despite this relationship, Trump has frequently labeled India as a “tariff king” and pushed for the South Asian nation to facilitate the deportation of migrants. In response, India has shown openness to lowering tariffs on American goods, accepting the return of Indian citizens, and increasing its purchase of U.S. oil.
However, with tariff threats still looming, the crucial question remains: How much does personal rapport between the two leaders matter, and how far is India willing to go to reach a trade agreement?
Scrutiny on Body Language
During Trump’s first term, Modi built a strong working relationship with the U.S. president. The two leaders can capitalize on areas of alignment and “minimize areas of friction without conceding on core areas of national interest,” stated Meera Shankar, India’s former ambassador to the U.S.
“Most other partners have their reciprocal lists ready from the word go, because it’s a point of leverage when you negotiate,” Shankar explained, expressing optimism that India “will find the right balance between firmness and flexibility” when dealing with tariffs.
Modi, strengthened by his Hindu nationalist party’s victory in last weekend’s crucial state legislature election in India’s federal territory, including New Delhi, described the visit as an “opportunity to build upon” past collaboration and “deepen our partnership” in sectors such as technology, trade, defense, and energy.
Trump’s Expectations
During a conversation with Modi in January, Trump underscored the need for India to increase purchases of U.S.-made military equipment and weapons, as well as reduce the trade deficit. In 2023, the United States imported $50 billion more in goods from India than it exported.
According to a White House readout at the time, Trump “emphasized the importance of India increasing its procurement of American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship.”
Earlier this month, India complied with a U.S. request to accept the return of 104 migrants on a military plane, marking the first such repatriation flight under a crackdown ordered by the Trump administration.
Additionally, Modi’s government has lowered certain high tariffs, including reducing duties on some Harley-Davidson motorcycles from 50% to 40%. In 2023, India also lifted retaliatory tariffs on American almonds, apples, chickpeas, lentils, and walnuts.
“Another thing we can expect is that Modi would offer to purchase more American (natural) gas to narrow the U.S. trade deficit,” said Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific security program at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security. “This will help a little bit.”
Concerns Regarding China
India plays a pivotal role in the U.S. strategy to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific region. Later this year, it is set to host a summit of the Quad alliance, which includes the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia.
However, India might have to reassess its position if Trump’s administration pursues a diplomatic thaw with China.
“Trump’s outreach to China will complicate India’s ability to cultivate the American desire to use India as a proxy against China without actually ever becoming one,” noted Happymon Jacob, founder of the New Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defense Research.
India recently took steps to improve ties with China. In December, both countries agreed to work toward resolving their longstanding border dispute in the Himalayas, which had led to a deadly military clash in 2020.
“Even a tactical accommodation between the U.S. and China has implications for India,” Shankar remarked.
Potential Defense Agreements
The United States remains India’s largest trading partner, with a trade imbalance of $50 billion in favor of India. The total Indo-U.S. trade in goods and services reached approximately $190.1 billion in 2023. According to India’s External Affairs Ministry, U.S. exports to India were valued at nearly $70 billion, while Indian exports to the U.S. stood at $120 billion.
India remains heavily reliant on Russia for military supplies, with about 60% of its defense equipment sourced from Moscow. However, uncertainties surrounding the Ukraine war have pushed New Delhi to explore alternative suppliers, including the U.S., Israel, and Britain.
A recent deal will enable U.S.-based General Electric to collaborate with Hindustan Aeronautics in manufacturing jet engines for Indian fighter aircraft. Additionally, India has agreed to purchase U.S.-made MQ-9B SeaGuardian armed drones.
Since 2008, India has signed contracts for over $20 billion worth of American defense equipment.
“For India, that could also be an area where we see some synergies with the U.S.,” Shankar stated, adding that Trump is expected to encourage further defense procurements by India.
Raja Mohan, an analyst at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, views Modi’s visit as a crucial moment to advance Indo-U.S. ties.
“India’s diplomatic skills will be tested, so the general goodwill that exists between Trump and Modi should be translated into concrete outcomes,” Mohan emphasized.