Kamala Harris’ Entry Shakes Up 2024 Electoral Landscape

The 2024 electoral race has seen a significant shift since Vice President Kamala Harris took the helm of the Democratic ticket, altering the political map that once appeared to be a rematch between an unpopular, aging incumbent president and the former president, now a convicted felon, whom he defeated four years ago.

This latest analysis of the “Road to 270” electoral map shows several moves favoring Harris, indicating she has more pathways to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency than President Joe Biden had when he led the Democratic Party. The current outlook resembles the situation in the final days of the 2020 campaign, focusing on seven battleground states and one congressional district in Nebraska. These areas are expected to receive the most attention and resources from both campaigns as they vie for the White House. In the month since Biden announced he would not run for re-election, these seven states have witnessed $240 million in advertising spending, split almost evenly between the two parties, according to AdImpact.

Previously, former President Donald Trump held a clear advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes. However, Harris’ entry into the race and her swift success in unifying the Democratic Party and regaining support from key groups, including voters of color, young voters, and women, has erased that advantage. Although the momentum has shifted in Harris’ favor, the race remains extremely close, with no clear frontrunner. Both Trump and Harris have multiple routes to achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes.

In this new analysis, four states have shifted from leaning Republican to being classified as toss-up battlegrounds: Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Together, these states account for 53 electoral votes, which were previously considered to lean toward Trump.

Trump now has 24 states and one congressional district in Maine either solidly in his favor or leaning in his direction, giving him a total of 219 electoral votes, 51 short of the 270 needed to win. Meanwhile, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in her favor or leaning her way, totaling 225 electoral votes, 45 votes shy of the required 270.

Currently, seven states and one Nebraska congressional district, amounting to 94 electoral votes, are classified as true toss-ups as the Democratic National Convention approaches and the summer draws to a close.

It is crucial to understand that this electoral outlook is a snapshot of the current state of the electoral college, not a prediction of the final outcome in November. The analysis is based on public and private polling, discussions with campaign advisers, political operatives from both parties, members of Congress, and professionals involved with outside groups active in the race.

As some Sun Belt states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, have become more competitive with Harris in the race, her most straightforward path to 270 electoral votes likely involves maintaining the “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and retaining the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska in the Democratic column.

For Trump, the most direct route to 270 electoral votes would involve holding onto all the states he won in 2020 and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania—two states he won in 2016—back to his column. Keeping North Carolina from slipping away is also critical for Trump, which may explain his recent focus on the state, including two visits in as many weeks and increased spending on television ads there.

The current electoral map breaks down as follows:

Solid Republican (188 Electoral Votes):Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3).

Leans Republican (31 Electoral Votes):Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1).

Toss-ups (94 Electoral Votes):Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10).

Leans Democratic (50 Electoral Votes): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13).

Solid Democratic (175 Electoral Votes):California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).