Standing at a lectern in Washington’s National Cathedral, Joe Biden eulogized former President Jimmy Carter as three former presidents—Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama—and Donald Trump looked on. Biden, like Carter, is a one-term president. The parallels were evident as Biden paid tribute to Carter, commending his foresight and achievements in civil rights, peace, nuclear non-proliferation, and environmental protection.
“Many think he was from a bygone era, but in reality, he saw well into the future,” Biden said.
Earlier that week, Biden reflected on his own presidency. “I hope history says I came in with a plan to restore the economy and America’s global leadership,” he stated in an interview. “And I hope it records that I did it with honesty and integrity.”
As Biden prepares to leave office with approval ratings near their lowest at 39%, history’s judgment remains uncertain. His presidency ends with his 2020 opponent, Donald Trump, poised to reclaim power, framing Biden’s tenure as a bridge between Trump’s two terms.
Author and strategist Susan Estrich summarized Biden’s legacy as one tied to Trump. “He’d like his legacy to be that he rescued us from Trump. But sadly, for him, it’s Trump again.”
Early Missteps and Challenges
Biden’s presidency faced setbacks from its early days. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 was a turning point. Though the Trump administration had negotiated the exit, Biden approved it despite military advisors’ warnings. The resulting turmoil in Kabul damaged Biden’s approval, which fell below 50% and never recovered.
Domestically, inflation surged past 5% for the first time in 30 years by mid-2021. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Biden initially called it “transitory,” a stance contradicted by economists like Larry Summers. By June 2022, inflation peaked at 9.1%, forcing the administration to concede its miscalculations. Although inflation later dropped below 3%, public sentiment remained pessimistic.
The administration also struggled with the post-Covid surge in undocumented migration and was unprepared for Republican-led efforts to relocate migrants to northern cities. Other crises—shortages in Covid tests, rising egg prices, and the overturning of Roe v. Wade—compounded public dissatisfaction.
While many challenges were global in scope, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, they heightened the stakes for Biden, who sought to position Democrats as a competent counterweight to authoritarian regimes.
Biden’s Public Perception
Biden’s communication skills, once praised, appeared diminished. A senior White House official noted, “Watching Biden speak, I’m like, oh my God, this is a different person.” Special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents described him as an “elderly man with a poor memory,” reinforcing Republican attacks on his age.
The administration restricted Biden’s media interactions and carefully scripted his public appearances. Yet verbal gaffes and stumbles became ammunition for opponents. Biden’s age became a defining issue, particularly as his performance in public events appeared inconsistent.
Legislative Wins and Long-Term Goals
Despite challenges, Biden’s administration achieved significant legislative milestones. Early successes included the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan, which funded Covid vaccine distribution and reduced child poverty to record lows. His bipartisan infrastructure bill allocated $1 trillion to transportation, clean energy, and broadband expansion.
However, critics like historian Brent Cebul argued that the administration’s focus on long-term policy outcomes was out of sync with voters’ immediate needs. Biden himself admitted the delay in tangible benefits during a later interview.
Internal Struggles and Political Battles
Biden’s team excelled at navigating narrow congressional majorities, but internal dynamics became strained over time. A senior official admitted that as progress stalled, “infighting and frustration” grew. The administration faced mounting Republican opposition, including hearings on Afghanistan, Hunter Biden’s business dealings, and an impeachment inquiry in September 2023.
Biden’s presidency was marked by two distinct phases, says Cebul. The early period saw major accomplishments, but the later years were defined by less focus and greater public dissatisfaction.
A Beleaguered Re-election Campaign
On April 25, 2023, Biden announced his re-election campaign, framing it as a battle against Trump’s “extremists.” He championed “Bidenomics,” touting economic growth and inflation reduction. However, his message failed to resonate with many Americans.
During a June 2023 trip to Chicago, Biden emphasized restoring the American dream. “Bidenomics is about the future,” he declared. Yet his halting delivery and missteps undermined the message. Cebul criticized Biden’s focus on economic success, calling it “discordant” given public sentiment.
Despite internal and external doubts, Biden maintained he was the best candidate to defeat Trump. “I’m not a young guy,” he acknowledged in a campaign ad, “but I understand how to get things done for the American people.”
New Crises: Hamas and Hunter Biden
The October 7 Hamas attack on Israel added another challenge to Biden’s presidency. While Biden cautioned Israel against overreach, domestic support for his handling of the conflict waned.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden’s legal troubles, including a gun charge conviction and tax-related indictments, became a distraction. Biden’s decision to pardon his son after November’s election drew widespread criticism.
The End of a Presidency
Biden’s campaign effectively ended during a June debate with Trump in Atlanta. His confused performance reinforced concerns about his age and capabilities. Trump’s subsequent resurgence, marked by a unified party convention and response to an assassination attempt, solidified his lead.
In July, Biden withdrew from the race. Kamala Harris, Biden’s chosen successor, lost to Trump in the general election, sealing the final judgment on Biden’s political career as one of defeat.
Reflecting on Biden’s decision to seek re-election, Estrich argued, “We should have had primaries. His successor would have had time to make the case.”
Biden’s Legacy in Retrospect
Had Biden stepped aside after one term, his legacy might have been different. Avoiding a grueling campaign could have allowed him to be remembered for legislative achievements rather than missteps.
With Trump’s imminent return to office, much of Biden’s work faces potential dismantling. Attorney General Merrick Garland succinctly captured the uncertainty surrounding Biden’s legacy: “I’ll leave that to the historians.”
As Biden departs the White House, his presidency is framed by the successes of his early years and the challenges that defined its conclusion. His ultimate place in history rests on how the next chapter of American politics unfolds.