Israel has initiated its largest military exercise in years, mobilizing multiple divisions to prepare for potential border infiltrations amid rising regional tensions, with echoes of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
The Israeli military commenced extensive domestic military exercises on Sunday, aimed at countering potential surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel. This large-scale drill mobilizes multiple divisions and air assets, reflecting heightened regional tensions.
Scheduled to last 48 hours, the exercises have drawn attention from security analysts, particularly as they coincide with the upcoming Israeli elections on October 27. An Israeli security expert has invoked the 1973 Yom Kippur War, cautioning that current tensions could lead to a “dangerous miscalculation.” During that conflict, Egypt and Syria disguised their preparations for a surprise attack under the guise of military exercises.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the maneuvers involve the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, alongside the Israeli Air Force. The IDF aims to enhance the readiness and alertness of its forces, bolster community defenses, and maximize aerial capabilities in the region.
As part of the exercise, troops will practice various scenarios, including surprise attacks and infiltrations into Israeli territory by both air and land. These drills incorporate lessons learned from the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel.
Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam emphasized that the exercise is primarily focused on non-state actors, with or without Iranian support. He noted that the drills are designed to address potential threats from Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, where some groups may be backed by Iran while others operate independently.
“This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders,” Eilam remarked. “It’s all about ensuring that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It also sends a message to Iran and others: do not provoke us during the election.”
The Israeli drills come on the heels of a show of force from Iran, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently launched approximately 30 ballistic missiles, underscoring Iran’s military capabilities. This display heightened alerts regarding commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and prompted the Israeli military to increase its readiness for a potential targeted strike against Iran.
During a recent visit to the IDF’s Central Command, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned of an increasing risk of escalation. “Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased,” Zamir stated. He added that troop deployments have been reinforced across all sectors, including the movement of the 98th Division to enhance security and stability.
“Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran conducted its own significant exercise, which was more intimidating for Israel because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel,” Eilam explained. “This exercise on Sunday and Monday is directed against Iran’s proxies and allies at the border of Israel.”
Sunday’s drill also followed an October 19 mission in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to the Iranian border. Washington was informed in advance of this maneuver, which was viewed as a non-kinetic show of force after a broader strike package was postponed earlier in the month.
Despite these deterrence efforts, Eilam cautioned that large-scale military exercises carry the risk of miscalculation, particularly when troop movements could be misinterpreted as preparations for an attack. He referenced the Cold War, noting that significant troop deployments often led to fears of imminent conflict.
He pointed to the 1973 Yom Kippur War as a historical example, where Egypt and Syria conducted military exercises that concealed troop buildups along Israel’s borders. Israeli intelligence largely dismissed these movements as routine, allowing the two nations to achieve strategic surprise with a coordinated attack on Yom Kippur.
“The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack,” Eilam said. “Israel and Iran are now watching each other closely, with both sides suspecting the other might strike first.” He concluded by highlighting the potential for miscalculation, where each side might mistakenly believe the other is preparing for an attack.
As tensions continue to mount, the situation remains fluid. “It’s all about sending messages to each other,” Eilam noted. “It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran, as that depends on U.S. authorization. Right now, both sides are signaling: ‘We are ready, don’t mess with us, but we don’t want to start a war right now,'” he added, according to Fox News.