As the 2024 presidential race nears its conclusion, America is on the brink of witnessing a historic moment, regardless of the outcome.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win, she would become the first woman to hold the highest office in the United States. In contrast, if former President Donald Trump emerges victorious, he would be the second president in history to secure a return to the White House after a failed reelection bid, and the first former president to achieve this despite a criminal conviction.
ABC News presidential historian Mark Updegrove reflected on the weight of this election, stating, “You hear inevitably every four years that this is the most important election of one’s lifetime, but there is no question in my mind that this is the most important election of my lifetime, and probably the most important since 1860 when Abraham Lincoln was elected to the presidency and the fate of the country was in the balance.” Updegrove attributed the extraordinary nature of this election to both the historic backgrounds of Harris and Trump, and the ideological stakes of the race, which he described as a pivotal moment for American democracy and global diplomacy.
The political spectrum is polarized by the stark differences between Harris and Trump. “I’ve never in my life, again, seen such a marked difference in what the candidates stand for and the policy positions they have articulated,” Updegrove noted, pointing to Trump’s unconventional stance on key issues as a departure from traditional U.S. leadership.
The 2024 election cycle itself has been one of unprecedented twists and turns. President Joe Biden initially launched his reelection campaign in April 2023 and dominated the primary season with uncontested wins across all states. However, a highly anticipated and early debate with Trump in June turned the tables, as Biden’s performance led to increased concerns about his age, especially among his Democratic supporters. In July, after mounting pressure from his party, Biden stepped down, subsequently endorsing Harris—already the first Black and South Asian woman to serve as vice president—to succeed him as the Democratic nominee. By early August, Harris officially took the helm of the Democratic ticket following a virtual delegate voting process.
During her acceptance speech in Chicago, Harris spoke about the overarching themes of her campaign, calling it a “fight for America’s future.” Political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus from the University of Houston remarked on the extraordinary nature of Harris’s rise to the top of the ticket, observing, “It is exceptionally rare for presidential candidates to swap certain roles in the middle of the campaign, period. It was a wild moment for an already crazy cycle.”
Rottinghaus highlighted the historical significance of Harris’s candidacy, suggesting that her potential victory would symbolize a landmark achievement in the U.S. fight for diversity and gender equity in leadership roles. “If she wins, it will break barriers that the nation has been fighting to break since the 1920s. For a nation that has been more challenged in terms of race relations to nominate and then elect a Black woman is, by any counts, progress,” he added.
Despite the potentially groundbreaking nature of her candidacy, Harris has largely refrained from making her race or gender a focal point in her campaign messaging. Jim Kessler, co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way, described this as a prudent approach. “That’s smart because voters aren’t interested in making history so much as being happy with where the country is going, and the voters feel very mixed,” Kessler noted.
In a recent interview with ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Mary Bruce, Harris addressed the subject of the history she could make. Harris candidly stated, “I am fully aware of my gender and race. And I know that it will be very significant in terms of the glass that will be broken. But I do not expect that anyone is going to vote for me because of my gender or race. It has to be because I earn their vote with a plan to make their lives better.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s third White House bid, announced in November 2022, has been riddled with legal battles and controversy. Over the course of his campaign, Trump has been indicted four times, with one case resulting in a conviction for falsifying business records related to hush money payments to an adult film actress during his 2016 campaign. Trump has vowed to appeal the conviction.
Despite these challenges, Trump emerged victorious in nearly every Republican primary state, fending off over a dozen rivals, including his former vice president. Most competitors dropped out before the first voting event in Iowa, and Trump was officially nominated by the Republican Party in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, not long after surviving an assassination attempt where he was shot in the ear. Updegrove characterized Trump as a figure of resilience, saying, “He’s a study in resilience and defiance, resurging despite two impeachments, Jan. 6, criminality and consistently flouting democratic norms during his presidency and as a candidate.”
If elected, Trump would join Grover Cleveland in the rare position of serving non-consecutive terms, making him the only U.S. president since 1892 to achieve such a feat.
Reflecting on the impact this election will have on future generations, Rottinghaus commented on the unique dynamics of both major parties in the race. “The Democrats were hungry for a win and despite having an incumbent president who was otherwise performing well needed to energize the ticket dramatically,” he observed. He also pointed out that Trump’s firm grip on the Republican Party essentially ensured his nomination, an outcome rarely seen in modern political history. “On the Republican side, Trump co-opted the Republican Party in a way that made his nomination inevitable. I don’t think we ever had a situation like this in the modern era,” Rottinghaus added.
The final days of the race are drawing intense attention to an election season that has defied expectations on every front. As Americans prepare to cast their ballots, they do so with a palpable awareness of the potential to shape the nation’s future and, as some political analysts argue, secure or redefine the democratic values of the United States.
If Trump wins, he becomes the First US President & a Republican to win over 2 women candidates and never won against Men (lost). It will be very hard to beat this record for a very long time.