A Fox News contributor predicted that Donald Trump will lose the 2024 election because of the significant number of Republican voters who backed Nikki Haley.
Marc Thiessen, the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush, said that the results of the GOP primaries suggest that the former president will lose to President Joe Biden in November if he cannot sweep up the voters who backed Haley.
“Nikki Haley won 2.9 million votes in the primary so far. Our Fox News voter analysis shows that somewhere between five in 10 and six in 10 of those Nikki Haley voters said they won’t vote for Trump in November,” Thiessen said.
“If even a fraction of those voters deliver on that promise and stay home or vote third party or just split their votes or something, Trump loses.”
However, others feel differently. According to The Hill, Trump has reasons to be optimistic. He almost never led in any polls during the 2020 election cycle, yet he still came within a few thousand votes of pulling off a second narrow Electoral College victory. In contrast, he now leads in nearly every national poll. He also leads or ties Biden in every important swing state.
Though the numbers are pitted against a Biden win in November, there are more chances for Trump to lose than Biden. The 2024 election has favorable winds for Republicans, with an unpopular president embracing unpopular policies. But nothing is a given for Republicans.
As Nikki Haley said after bowing out of the race last week, Trump has to expand his base of support, and so far, he hasn’t done anything to that end. It will be enough for some people that he is not Joe Biden, but even that won’t be enough to win. For every person motivated to vote against Biden, there is at least one and possibly more motivated to vote against Trump. This is, at best, a zero-sum game, not a pathway to victory.
