The Congress party and its allies appear to be on the brink of a significant victory in the Haryana Assembly elections, according to a CVoter exit poll. The data indicates a full majority for the Congress in Haryana, while in Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference alliance is projected to lead in a tight contest against the BJP.
The exit poll data for Jammu and Kashmir is based on 20,013 interviews conducted across all 90 Assembly constituencies. Similarly, in Haryana, the exit poll was carried out based on 13,817 interviews, covering all constituencies in the state. It is important to note that exit polls, though insightful, are not always accurate and can sometimes deliver unexpected results.
In Haryana, the Congress is projected to secure a comfortable majority, potentially winning between 50 and 58 seats in the 90-member Assembly. This is a significant improvement from its performance in the 2019 election, where the party managed to secure only 31 seats. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had won 40 seats in the previous election and is aiming for a third consecutive victory in the state, is expected to see its numbers drop to 20-28 seats.
One of the main contributors to Congress’s rise in Haryana is the decline of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had won 10 seats in the last election. The exit poll suggests that the JJP may only secure 0-2 seats this time, reflecting a steep decline in its support base.
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir is shaping up to be a much closer contest. The Congress-National Conference alliance is expected to lead with 40-48 seats out of the total 90 in the Assembly. Meanwhile, the BJP is projected to secure 27-32 seats. Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) could see a sharp decline in support, with exit polls predicting only 6-12 seats for the party, compared to the 28 seats it won in the previous election. Other political parties and independent candidates are projected to win between 6-11 seats.
It is worth noting that while the Congress, National Conference, and PDP are all part of the opposition INDIA bloc at the national level, the PDP chose to contest the Jammu and Kashmir elections independently. This decision, however, may not work in its favor as the exit poll indicates a substantial reduction in the party’s seats. The PDP is expected to drop from 28 seats in the last election to just 6-12 seats this time, highlighting the challenges it faces in this election cycle.
The Jammu region, which consists of 43 seats, remains a stronghold for the BJP, according to the exit poll. The saffron party is expected to retain a commanding presence in this region, with a projection of 27-31 seats. The Congress-National Conference alliance is predicted to win 11-15 seats in Jammu, while the PDP may secure only 0-2 seats in this part of the state.
The Kashmir Valley, which has 47 seats, is likely to see a strong performance from the Congress-National Conference alliance. The exit poll suggests that this alliance could win between 29 and 33 seats, showing a notable improvement from its 16-seat tally in the 2014 election. On the other hand, the PDP, which had a significant presence in the Valley with 25 seats in the last election, may see its numbers shrink to 6-10 seats this time.
For the BJP, the Kashmir Valley has traditionally been a challenging region. In the 2014 election, the party did not win any seats in the Valley. However, the exit poll predicts that the BJP may finally make some inroads and could potentially secure a seat or two in this election.
As the results approach, these exit polls provide a glimpse into how the political landscape might shift in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. However, the final results could still hold surprises, as exit polls are not always an accurate reflection of the final outcome. Nevertheless, the Congress appears poised for a significant victory in Haryana, while in Jammu and Kashmir, a competitive race between the Congress-National Conference alliance and the BJP is anticipated.
