America’s shrinking cattle herd, the smallest in 75 years due to drought and rising costs, is driving beef prices to near-record highs with no immediate relief anticipated.
Beef prices in the United States are experiencing a significant surge, and experts caution that consumers should not expect relief in the near future. The U.S. cattle herd has dwindled to its smallest size in 75 years, primarily due to prolonged drought conditions, escalating costs, and an aging ranching workforce.
Agricultural economists and ranchers agree that the process of rebuilding cattle herds will take several years, suggesting that high beef prices are likely to persist. “The biggest thing has been drought,” stated Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University. Years of dry weather have devastated grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without sufficient feed or water to sustain their herds. Consequently, many ranchers have been compelled to sell cattle prematurely, including breeding cows essential for producing future generations of calves, complicating efforts to restore the nation’s cattle population.
Data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve indicates that as drought severity increases, cattle-producing regions experience a 12% decline in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size, and a 4% drop in farm income. This slow recovery is not only economic but also biological, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.
“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” Peel explained. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.” He emphasized that it takes approximately two years to bring cattle to market and several years to rebuild herds, leaving little room for short-term solutions.
Once herds diminish, reversing the trend is challenging. This reality is being felt deeply in ranching communities. Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company in Texas, remarked, “I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage. My message to consumers is simple: folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds.”
Meanwhile, Will Harris, a fourth-generation cattleman in Bluffton, Georgia, noted the direct impact of the shrinking cattle herd on consumers. “The American cattle herd is smaller than it has been since the 1950s, and that contraction has pushed beef prices to historic highs. Demand is strong, but domestic supply simply isn’t meeting it, and that gap is being felt most by consumers,” said Harris, who owns White Oak Pastures.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the average price of beef in grocery stores rose from approximately $8.40 per pound in March to $10.10 per pound by December 2025, marking a roughly 20% increase.
Despite these rising prices, American consumers have not reduced their beef purchases. In 2025, shoppers spent over $45 billion on beef, purchasing more than 6.2 billion pounds, as reported by Beef Research, a contractor for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. Spending increased by about 12% from the previous year, while the volume of beef sold rose by more than 4%, indicating that consumers are not only paying more but also buying more.
This situation unfolds as President Donald Trump temporarily expands beef imports from Argentina in an effort to alleviate high grocery prices while outlining longer-term strategies to strengthen the U.S. cattle industry. Although these imports may provide short-term relief at the grocery store, ranchers and economists agree that they cannot replace the need to rebuild the domestic cattle supply.
As the cattle industry navigates these challenges, the focus remains on long-term recovery and sustainability, with ranchers urging consumers to remain patient as they work to restore herd numbers and stabilize beef prices.
According to Fox News, the ongoing situation reflects broader agricultural trends and the significant impact of environmental factors on food supply chains.