Recent polls provide a complex picture for Democrats as they face challenges in regaining voter trust following a significant loss to President Trump in the last election.
Despite recent notable election victories, Democrats have struggled to distance themselves from the Republican Party as they look toward the upcoming midterms. Data experts suggest that while the party’s position has somewhat improved since Trump began his second term, much work remains to convince the American public and regain control of the House.
“You can’t just be on the attack. You can’t beat something with nothing,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “We have to show and tell what we would do, but I think that we’re on the precipice of a big opportunity, and I hope we take advantage of it.”
After losing ground when Trump swept all seven battleground states and the GOP gained control of Congress, Democrats are focusing on rebuilding. However, data on the party’s standing remains less than encouraging halfway through Trump’s first year back in office.
The Democratic Party continues to experience historically low favorability ratings. According to a YouGov average, the party’s favorability was over 20 points underwater as of late May. A CNN poll released recently found only 28% of surveyed Americans view the party favorably, a low not seen since CNN began the poll in 1992. While the Republican Party’s ratings aren’t much better, they haven’t reached the same depths.
A poll conducted by the Democratic super PAC Unite the Country revealed that voters perceive the party as “out of touch,” “woke,” and “weak.” An AP-NORC poll found a divide among party members, with just a third of Democrats optimistic about the party’s future, down from 57% last July.
Survey results highlight widespread frustration with Democratic leaders and a belief that they are not effectively countering the Trump administration. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is a particular focus, with mid-to-upper 20s approval ratings during Trump’s second term, though his net favorability has recently improved slightly.
Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), noted that Democrats are struggling to form a coherent message and lack a clear “rallying cry.” Some Democrats have drawn attention, either through confrontations with Trump officials or visits to detention centers like “Alligator Alcatraz” in Florida, but Schumer is still seen as lacking the gravitas of a strong party leader.
One ongoing trend is the absence of a defined Democratic Party leader following the 2024 election defeat. A March CNN poll found that 30% of Democrats couldn’t name a leader reflecting the party’s core values, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) receiving the most support at only 10%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris was supported by 9%, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 8%.
An Emerson College poll shows a wide split among Democrats about preferred 2028 presidential contenders, with the leading candidate only garnering 16% support. Tranter indicated that such disarray is typical after a major election loss, comparing the situation to the post-loss transformations of Democrats in 2005 and Republicans in 2013.
“Coming out of Kerry, the Democrats were also in the wilderness,” he said. “And so I think that the takeaway is that every time something like this happens, each party goes through its transformation. I think we’re still pretty early on [in] it.”
Yet, there’s a silver lining for the Democrats in the data. Trump’s approval and favorability ratings remain underwater, which provides Democrats a potential opening. Democrats also hold a small lead in DDHQ’s generic congressional ballot average as of early March, a margin that continues to hover at a few points.
The same CNN poll that highlighted the Democrats’ low favorability also showed party members are more motivated to vote in the next year’s midterms. A Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward’s survey found Republicans trailing in the generic ballot across 28 battleground House districts. Moreover, Democrats are hopeful that opposing Trump’s recent “big beautiful bill” may provide the needed boost for their base before the midterms.
Ryan O’Donnell, interim executive director at Data for Progress, noted Trump’s focus on unpopular policies potentially benefits Democrats going into the midterms. However, he warned that Democrats also must listen to voter concerns and propose real solutions to improve quality of life and affordability.
Lake emphasized the lack of a clear leader could become an asset, with a crowded field in 2028 showcasing what the Democratic alternative to Trump could look like. However, finding and establishing a few strong leaders has been slow, and she doubts this will be “fixed” before the 2026 midterms. She encourages the party to present a unified voice with a strong economic message addressing who they will fight for.
Finally, a partnered poll between Lake’s firm and the Democratic donor network Way to Win surveyed those who voted for President Biden in 2020 but abstained in 2024. The findings showed these voters leaned Democratic if the midterms were held today and felt discontent about Medicaid cuts and stagnant living costs.
Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, the co-founder and vice president of Way to Win, stated that these concerns offer the party a clear opening. With respondents expressing regret over not voting, particularly regarding child aid program cuts and escalating living costs, Ancona urged the party to leverage this data to build an opposition narrative.
“The table has been set,” Fernandez Ancona said. “The question is, will we be able to take advantage of it? Will we really lean in? Will we not shy away from actually going on offense about this bill? It’s all about, can we seize the opportunity?”