The U.S. may reduce its role in countering China’s influence in Southeast Asia, prompting regional nations to reassess their strategic partnerships and strengthen local institutions.
WASHINGTON, DC – A recent report indicates that the National Security Strategy (NSS) of the Trump administration may signal a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Southeast Asia. This change could mean that the United States will no longer serve as a counterbalance to China’s assertiveness in the region.
The report, published by Eurasia Review on February 11, suggests that the geopolitical landscape is evolving into a more uncertain and fragmented order. In light of this, Southeast Asian countries may need to revitalize ASEAN-led regional institutions and expand their strategic partnerships with other regional powers.
As the Philippines prepares to assume the role of ASEAN Chair in 2026, the South China Sea dispute and maritime security are expected to be central to its agenda. The report highlights that the best-case scenario for the Philippines would involve a revised and strengthened code of conduct regarding the South China Sea. However, the likelihood of achieving this has diminished, particularly in the context of the Trump administration’s forthcoming National Security Strategy, set to be released in December 2025. This document is anticipated to mark a departure from liberal internationalist values towards a more transactional, America-first approach to foreign policy.
The report further notes that the U.S. appears to be less interested in containing China and is increasingly accepting the “outsized influence of larger, richer, and stronger nations” as a fundamental aspect of international relations. This perspective suggests that China and Russia are no longer viewed as competitors or threats to the rules-based international order, allowing both nations to establish their own spheres of influence.
As Washington shifts its focus to its immediate hemisphere, Southeast Asian nations may encounter strategic uncertainty. Many countries in the region have historically relied on the U.S. as a counterbalance to China’s growing presence and as a partner in maintaining regional stability. However, the anticipated shift in American focus, as reflected in the NSS, may compel Southeast Asia’s political and economic leaders to reevaluate their strategies amid changing great-power dynamics.
While the NSS document may not fully dictate the often unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, it is clear that Southeast Asia has not been a priority for the administration. In the absence of a clearly defined U.S. strategy for the region, Southeast Asian nations must adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape. The challenge for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be to strengthen its own institutions, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM+), and the East Asia Summit (EAS), while fostering greater intra-regional trust and cooperation in response to China’s influence.
As the dynamics of international relations continue to shift, the implications for Southeast Asia could be profound, necessitating a reevaluation of alliances and strategies in the face of an uncertain future.
According to Eurasia Review, the evolving geopolitical landscape will require Southeast Asian nations to adapt and strengthen their regional institutions.