Trump’s recent policy decisions regarding India threaten to undermine a crucial partnership, risking generational harm to U.S.-India relations.
As potential allies go, India stands out as a significant player on the global stage. Currently the fifth-largest economy in the world, India is projected by PriceWaterhouseCoopers to ascend to the second position by 2050. In 2024, U.S. trade with India reached $212 billion, marking an 8.3% increase from the previous year. With its vast population and historical skepticism towards the Chinese Communist Party, India is well-positioned to act as a counterbalance to China’s expanding influence. Additionally, the Indian populace generally holds a favorable view of the United States.
Given this context, the Trump Administration’s decision to alienate India is perplexing. While it is true that India has continued to purchase Russian oil, this is a necessity for a nation of 1.4 billion people, where energy and fertilizer are critical for sustaining its economy. The impact of India’s oil purchases on Vladimir Putin’s strategies in Ukraine is minimal, as he could easily redirect his oil to other buyers. A simple expression of disapproval would have sufficed instead of the aggressive stance taken by the Trump Administration.
The administration has escalated tensions by doubling tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, a move that will significantly restrict trade between the two countries. Furthermore, it has openly courted the leaders of Pakistan, India’s historical rival, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. support. Trump himself has disparaged India’s economy, labeling it as “dead.”
Such actions could inflict long-term damage on U.S.-India relations, potentially transforming a promising ally into a neutral party at best, or an outright adversary at worst. Richard Fontaine from the Center for a New American Security has referred to “Global Swing States” that could align with either the U.S. or China, likening India to Pennsylvania. The current administration’s approach resembles a campaign that disparages local teams while promising economic ruin.
The rationale behind these actions is puzzling, especially considering the potential for a strong security and economic partnership between the U.S. and India. India has invested over $24 billion in U.S. military equipment, and while it still relies heavily on Russian military supplies, its imports from that country are decreasing. Moreover, India’s military cooperation with the U.S. has been growing, evidenced by participation in numerous bilateral and multilateral military exercises.
Additionally, both nations have a shared interest in combating terrorism, having faced devastating attacks in the past. This has fostered a collaborative relationship in intelligence sharing, technology, and tactical approaches, which has only strengthened in recent years.
Economically, the U.S. and India complement each other well. India is the second-largest food consumer globally, while the U.S. is the leading food exporter. The American tech industry also relies heavily on skilled Indian workers in STEM fields. As the U.S. has become a net energy exporter, India’s growing demand for energy aligns with American capabilities. Although there are instances of competition between U.S. and Indian companies, they often find themselves in complementary roles.
Despite these promising dynamics, the U.S.-India relationship is not without its challenges. India’s human rights record raises concerns, and American companies often struggle with India’s bureaucratic hurdles. Moreover, India maintains ties with nations like Russia, which complicates its alignment with the West.
However, these issues do not justify a retreat from what has been one of America’s most promising relationships. It is possible that the Trump Administration is pursuing a strategic trade deal, but if that is not the case, the current approach represents a significant miscalculation that could have lasting repercussions.
This op-ed was first published in National Security Journal.
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