In his third bid for the presidency, Donald Trump clinched a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Not only did he secure 312 Electoral College votes, but for the first time, he also won the national popular vote, defeating Harris by 1.5 percentage points. His success was fueled by a more diverse voter coalition compared to his earlier campaigns, as outlined in a new Pew Research Center study examining the 2024 electorate.
Among Latino voters, Trump made significant inroads, narrowing the gap considerably. While Joe Biden had defeated him among Hispanics by a wide margin in 2020 (61% to 36%), the 2024 figures were much closer, with Harris winning 51% and Trump securing 48%. This nearly even split suggests Trump made notable progress with this key demographic.
Black voter support for Trump also increased substantially. In 2020, he received just 8% of the Black vote. By 2024, that figure had climbed to 15%. Although Harris maintained majority support among Black Americans, the shift toward Trump signals an important change in voting behavior.
Asian American voters showed similar trends. While Harris earned the support of 57% of Asian voters, Trump won 40%. In comparison, Biden had captured 70% of the Asian vote in 2020, with Trump garnering only 30%. The narrowed margin in 2024 indicates Trump’s growing appeal among this group as well.
According to Pew, these shifts were mainly due to changes in voter turnout between 2020 and 2024 rather than widespread switching of party loyalty. Most voters stuck with the party they supported in the previous election. However, Trump gained from increased turnout among his 2020 supporters and an edge among new voters who did not participate in the 2020 election. This new voter group was significantly more diverse than those who voted in both years.
Despite Trump’s improved performance among various groups, many of the entrenched voting patterns that have characterized American politics for decades persisted. One of the most prominent was the divide in educational attainment. Trump continued to dominate among voters without a four-year college degree, widening his advantage to 14 percentage points (56% to 42%), double the margin he achieved in 2016. In contrast, Harris outperformed Trump among college-educated voters, winning 57% to his 41%. However, her lead was smaller than Biden’s margin in 2020.
The urban-rural divide also deepened. Trump captured rural voters by a massive 40-point margin, with 69% of rural residents backing him compared to just 29% for Harris. Meanwhile, voters in urban areas largely supported Harris, with 65% favoring her and 33% choosing Trump.
Religion continued to influence voter behavior. Pew found that nearly two-thirds of Americans who attend religious services at least monthly (64%) voted for Trump. In contrast, Harris was favored by 56% of those who attend services less frequently, while 43% of that group chose Trump.
Voter retention and turnout differences also played a critical role in Trump’s win. A larger portion of Trump’s 2020 supporters (89%) turned out again in 2024, compared to 85% of Biden’s 2020 voters. Additionally, among those who didn’t vote in 2020 but did in 2024, 54% supported Trump, while 42% voted for Harris.
Between the two elections, voter loyalty held steady for most. “About 85% of those who backed Trump in 2020 did so again in 2024,” Pew reported. Only 11% of his previous supporters did not vote in 2024, and 4% switched sides or supported another candidate. Harris retained the backing of 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters, but a slightly higher 15% of them didn’t vote, and 6% either chose Trump or someone else.
New and returning voters – those who had been eligible in 2020 but didn’t vote – also leaned toward Trump when they participated in 2024. Among this group, which includes those who were too young to vote in 2020, 14% voted for Trump and 12% for Harris. This indicates a modest advantage for Trump among first-time or returning voters.
Overall, voting behavior between 2020 and 2024 showed both consistency and change. About 75% of eligible adults repeated their 2020 behavior – either voting for the same party or sitting out both elections. The remaining quarter changed course by switching party allegiance, voting in 2024 after not voting in 2020, or abstaining in 2024 after voting in the previous election.
Despite the high stakes, Harris might not have gained significantly from a broader turnout. When Pew asked nonvoters how they would have voted, responses were nearly even: 44% said they would have backed Trump, while 40% said Harris. This contrasts with 2020, when nonvoters showed a clear preference for Biden over Trump (46% to 35%).
This suggests that even with full voter participation in 2024, the final result likely wouldn’t have changed much. Pew noted that in 2020, a full turnout would likely have increased Biden’s margin of victory, unlike in 2024 when the nonvoter pool leaned more evenly between both parties. “Democrats have held an edge among nonvoters in prior elections dating back to at least the 1960s,” Pew stated, “though there is some evidence this advantage had declined in recent elections.”
Among naturalized citizens – immigrants who have become U.S. citizens – support was nearly split. Harris won 51% of their votes, while Trump captured 47%. This marked a significant shift from 2020, when Biden had led this group by 21 points (59% to 38%). In the 2024 electorate, naturalized citizens accounted for 9% of all voters.
Trump also gained ground with male voters, especially younger men. Men overall favored Trump by a 12-point margin (55% to 43%), a notable increase from 2020 when the gender divide was narrower. Among men under 50, the race was nearly even in 2024, with 49% supporting Trump and 48% backing Harris. In 2020, this group had favored Biden by 10 points (53% to 43%).
Despite historically high voter engagement in recent elections, many Americans remain disengaged. The 2024 turnout rate stood at 64%, the second-highest since 1960, trailing only the 2020 turnout. Still, about 26% of eligible voters had no record of voting in any of the last three national elections. These nonparticipants were disproportionately younger and less likely to have college degrees than consistent voters.
Another notable development was the growth in early in-person voting. In 2024, 32% of voters cast their ballots in person before Election Day, up from 27% in 2020. Meanwhile, 34% voted in person on Election Day itself.
Pew’s analysis paints a complex picture of the 2024 election: while traditional voting patterns held firm in many areas, Trump’s outreach to more diverse demographics, combined with targeted voter turnout strategies, enabled him to secure a broader coalition and his first-ever win in the national popular vote.