Trump Shifts Focus in Battleground States as Kamala Harris Gains Ground in Polls

Former President Donald Trump is adjusting his campaign strategy, scaling back efforts in key states he had aggressively targeted just six weeks ago. This shift reflects how Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise in the polls has reshaped the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.

Key Adjustments in Trump’s Strategy

The Trump campaign is pulling back from New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia. Instead, it is concentrating resources on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, commonly referred to as the “Blue Wall” states. These states are critical for both Republicans and Democrats in securing the White House.

Additionally, Trump is refocusing on North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. These states were initially considered strongholds for Trump before Harris entered the race, making them much more competitive.

This stands in stark contrast to late July when Trump, fresh off the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, appeared to have a smooth path toward a potential victory. At that time, the Trump campaign was optimistic about its chances in Minnesota and Virginia, even claiming that both states were “prime opportunities to flip.”

However, the political landscape changed significantly when President Joe Biden exited the race, and Kamala Harris emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee, putting Trump on the defensive.

New Hampshire: A Shift in Focus

In New Hampshire, the Trump campaign is notably drawing down its operations. A volunteer within the campaign shared in an email that the state was no longer viewed as a battleground and urged staff to shift their focus to Pennsylvania.

The campaign has denied this claim, maintaining that their Manchester, New Hampshire office remains fully operational. However, this volunteer’s statement highlights the changes in the campaign’s strategic approach.

Minnesota: Mixed Signals

In Minnesota, the situation is more complex. Trump’s campaign initially saw the state as a prime battleground and planned an extensive ground game. Following the Republican convention, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, held a rally in St. Cloud, Minnesota. At that time, the campaign was confident, announcing plans to open eight campaign offices and expand staff in the state.

Despite these bold claims, most of the roughly dozen campaign offices were established before Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, her running mate, joined the Democratic ticket. Since then, the campaign has hired only two full-time staff members—a state director and a senior advisor. However, a spokesperson for the Minnesota Republican Party confirmed that at least 14 full-time staffers are currently dedicated to Trump’s reelection efforts.

Minnesota Republican Party chair David Hann admitted that “the [state] party and Trump campaign have been working jointly with our local organizations to get those [offices] staffed up.” He emphasized that the campaign remains invested in the state and cited strong voter outreach efforts and volunteer engagement.

Virginia: Early Momentum Fades

In Virginia, Trump and Vance both held rallies earlier in the summer before Harris entered the race. Trump appeared in Chesapeake on June 28, just one day after his debate with Biden. Vance made his first solo appearance as the vice-presidential nominee in Radford, Virginia, on July 22, shortly after the GOP convention.

Although Trump’s campaign has continued to express optimism about winning Virginia, polls now show that Harris has overtaken Trump’s lead, securing a small but significant advantage in the state. “I truly believe we’re going to win the state,” Eric Trump said recently.

However, in the last six weeks, Trump has not held a rally in Virginia, and the campaign has seemingly ceased issuing memos touting internal polling data that once suggested the state was flippable. This quiet retreat from the state suggests that the campaign may be rethinking its earlier confidence.

Renewed Focus on the Blue Wall States

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has dramatically increased its spending on advertising in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, indicating the importance of these Blue Wall states to his strategy. The campaign has also ramped up spending in states that were once considered safe for Trump but are now becoming more competitive due to Harris’ growing momentum.

In North Carolina, for instance, both Trump’s campaign and MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting him, have collectively spent over $16 million on ads, a sign of how seriously they are taking Harris’ growing appeal in the state.

What Trump’s Campaign is Saying

Trump’s campaign remains publicly optimistic despite these changes in focus. Rachel Reisner, Trump’s battleground states director, emphasized that the campaign continues to build a powerful ground operation. “Team Trump continues to build out the most robust and modern ground game ever,” Reisner told Axios.

Reisner also highlighted the campaign’s steady growth, stating, “Our team is only expanding—we have new staff, offices, and volunteers weekly—with more enthusiasm, energy, and support from people and states Democrats take for granted.”

While the campaign insists that it is continuing to expand its operations and volunteer base, the shift away from earlier targeted states such as New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia shows that the political landscape has changed. The rise of Kamala Harris as a competitive contender has forced Trump to refocus his efforts on crucial battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.

Trump’s campaign strategy has undergone significant recalibration in response to Harris’ ascent in the polls. While the campaign was once confident in its chances of flipping traditionally Democratic states, the current focus is now on fortifying support in key battleground states where Harris’ competitiveness has shifted the dynamics. With both campaigns pouring resources into the Blue Wall and other critical states, the battle for the presidency is far from settled.