In selecting Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio as his running mate, Donald Trump aimed to bolster his hard-right agenda. Vance, who gained national attention as the author of the best-selling book “Hillbilly Elegy,” initially criticized Trump in 2016 but fully endorsed him by 2022, securing Trump’s endorsement and winning a Senate seat.
Since then, Vance has been a staunch supporter of Trump’s base. He declared the 2020 election was “stolen,” labeled the hush money trial a “sham,” called those arrested for the Capitol attack “political prisoners,” argued that Trump should be immune from criminal prosecution, blamed the attempted assassination of Trump on the Biden campaign’s messaging, and claimed he would not have certified the election results had he been vice president on January 6. Furthermore, Vance suggested that Biden and the Democrats are intentionally poisoning middle Americans with fentanyl as revenge on GOP voters, advocated for Trump to fire all bureaucrats and replace them with MAGA loyalists, and tweeted in 2023, “my education policy is that we should stop funding institutions that teach American kids to support terrorist killers…”
By choosing Vance, Trump opted for a younger, more handsome, and articulate version of himself, thus reinforcing his own message.
Presidential candidates have traditionally chosen vice presidents based on various models, some newer than others. Historically, vice presidents were chosen to “balance” the ticket, whether geographically or ideologically. For example, John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts chose Southerner Lyndon B. Johnson, while Southern conservative Jimmy Carter picked Northern liberal Walter Mondale. Sometimes these pairings worked, but often they led to strained relationships, resulting in vice presidents being sidelined or assigned trivial duties.
When balance was the criterion, it often meant the vice president had an uneventful role. Powerful senators who became vice presidents, like Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, found themselves out of the loop and marginalized. Truman, for instance, was unaware of the atomic bomb project until he became president after Roosevelt’s death. Johnson, as the powerful Senate Majority Leader, faced constant belittlement from Attorney General Bobby Kennedy.
This balancing model was primarily driven by electoral necessity. Before primaries settled nominations, conventions often saw multiple candidates and ballots, leading the frontrunner to make deals with rivals, offering the vice presidency as an incentive. However, in recent decades, the balancing model has been replaced by a new approach.
The new model emerged on July 9, 1992, when Bill Clinton asked Al Gore to join his ticket. Unlike traditional pairings, there was no balance between Clinton and Gore; both were young Southern politicians from the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. Headlines at the time highlighted this break from tradition: “Gore is a smart echo of the guy who chose him” and “Clinton Picks Gore as Running Mate in Break with Tradition: Democrats: Arkansas governor rejects geographical balance in choosing the Tennessee senator. Strategists believe his moderate positions can help unite divided party.”
Clinton’s choice of Gore surprised many who expected him to pick New York Governor Mario Cuomo, a Northeasterner and liberal who would have balanced Clinton’s southern roots and New Democrat ideology. But Clinton believed reinforcing his message was more crucial than balancing the ticket. In his biography, Clinton explains:
“His [Gore’s] selection defied the conventional wisdom that the vice-presidential candidates should provide political and geographic balance: We were from neighboring states. He was even younger than I was. And he, too, was identified with the New Democrat wing of the party. I believed his selection would work precisely because it didn’t have the traditional kind of balance.”
The reinforcing model has since become popular due to its advantages in both campaigning and governing. In a polarized political climate, voters seek clear stances from candidates, and a “balanced” ticket can confuse them. If Clinton had chosen Cuomo, those attracted to his centrist approach might have questioned its authenticity with a traditional liberal on the ballot.
In government, the reinforcing model ensures the president and vice president are aligned, facilitating smoother collaboration. Historically, when vice presidents were chosen for balance, they often disagreed with the president, leading to friction. With the reinforcing model, the vice president can genuinely support the president’s agenda.
The importance and influence of the vice presidency have grown with this model, starting with Al Gore and increasing with Dick Cheney. These vice presidents likely exerted more policy influence than all their predecessors combined.
The partnership model has been the norm since Gore’s selection. Unlike the fictional Selina Meyer from “Veep,” who frequently checked if the President had called (he hadn’t), Presidents Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump regularly communicated with their VPs, delegated significant power, and treated vice-presidential projects as presidential priorities.
This change was driven by the nomination process itself, which has diminished the importance of balance and increased the importance of message reinforcement.
Trump’s choice of Senator Vance reflects this shift. Vance will not only reinforce Trump’s core messages but also provide a reliable presence as vice president, particularly important given Trump’s age of 78. The idea of a younger, less erratic Trump excited Republicans when Governor DeSantis entered the race, though voters quickly realized he was not a suitable replacement. Vance, however, will energize the MAGA base, support an aging president in achieving his goals, and continue the fight effectively. As the Trump-Vance ticket gains momentum, Democrats, already concerned about their own weaknesses, will likely feel increased pressure.
