Trump Narrowly Leads Harris in Key Battleground States, Polls Show Tied Race in Wisconsin

Former President Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Harris, the anticipated Democratic presidential nominee, in several crucial battleground states, with the two candidates tied in Wisconsin, as revealed by recent polls.

The survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill, and released on Thursday, shows Trump ahead of Harris by 5 points in Arizona, with 49 percent to Harris’s 44 percent. In Georgia, Trump leads by 2 points, at 48 percent to 46 percent; in Michigan, he leads by 1 point, at 46 percent to 45 percent; in Pennsylvania, by 2 points, at 48 percent to 46 percent. In Wisconsin, both candidates are tied at 47 percent.

In every state except Arizona, the polling results fall within the survey’s margin of error, indicating that the races in most battleground states could be even closer than they appear.

Notably, Harris is outperforming President Biden in each of these battleground states, according to a similar survey from earlier this month. She surpasses Biden by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

A national poll aggregate compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ shows Trump leading Harris by roughly 48 percent to 46 percent as of Wednesday afternoon. This is a narrower margin compared to Trump’s lead over Biden, which stands at 47 percent to 43 percent.

Vice President Harris has been actively campaigning since receiving President Biden’s endorsement on Sunday. She held her first rally in Milwaukee on Tuesday, following Biden’s withdrawal from the race.

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a press release. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: Her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month,” added Kimball.

Among potential vice presidential picks from key swing states, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) saw the highest support from Democratic voters in his state, with 57 percent backing him as Harris’s running mate. Senator Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) received 42 percent support from Arizona Democratic voters, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) garnered 36 percent support from Democratic voters in her state.

The survey also brings positive news for Senate Democrats. Senators Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), along with Representatives Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), lead their respective Republican Senate competitors by margins of 4 or 5 points.

Democrats have rallied around Harris following Biden’s announcement that he would withdraw from the presidential race and support his vice president instead. Numerous high-profile Democrats have quickly endorsed Harris with just weeks remaining before the Democratic National Convention.

The polling results also highlight that Senate Democratic candidates continue to outperform the Democratic presidential nominee.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted from July 22-23. It included 800 respondents each in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in each state. In Pennsylvania, 850 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, and in Wisconsin, 845 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.