As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close contest, with both vying for the crucial 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. According to recent polling, neither candidate holds a decisive lead, and the battle for votes in swing states is especially fierce.
In key battleground states, Harris has a narrow lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump is leading by small margins in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. The polling data from 538, as of Friday, suggests these races are within the margin of error, highlighting how close the contest remains. Past elections have shown, however, that polling does not always accurately predict election outcomes, leaving the final result still uncertain.
The latest data reveals several potential paths for each candidate to reach the necessary Electoral College votes and clinch the presidency. If the polls accurately reflect Election Day outcomes, Trump would emerge victorious in states where he currently holds slight leads, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. This would give him a total of 287 electoral votes, putting him well above the required threshold. However, his lead in these states remains within 2.4 percentage points, making the results susceptible to polling errors.
Another possible scenario could favor Harris if the polls slightly understate her support. In that case, Harris could win by securing all electoral votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and even one electoral vote in Nebraska, which could bring her exactly to 270 votes. Such a path remains plausible, though it relies on her maintaining and potentially expanding her leads in these key states.
If Trump’s lead has been understated by polling, he could secure Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, which would place him at 268 electoral votes, just two votes shy of victory. In this situation, winning Pennsylvania would push Trump past the 270 mark, enabling him to clinch the election.
So far, more than 65 million Americans have voted, which represents roughly 40% of the total turnout in 2020. Although the early voting data offers insights into voter demographics, it remains difficult to gauge who currently holds the advantage. Early voting records indicate a higher turnout among women voters, a demographic that the Harris campaign and Democrats have emphasized in recent days.
Moreover, data shows that 41% of early voters are registered Democrats, while 39% are Republicans. In contrast, during the same period in the 2020 election, registered Democrats made up 45% of early voters, with Republicans accounting for 36%. This shift could suggest a tighter race among early voters than in the previous election, though whether this trend will hold through Election Day remains to be seen.
