A trio of spring elections delivered early warning signs for both President Donald Trump and the Republican Party on Tuesday, as Democrats mobilized against his efforts to shrink the federal government and the significant role played by billionaire Elon Musk in the early days of Trump’s new administration.
In the high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race, the conservative candidate, backed by Trump and Musk with $21 million in support, suffered a 10-point defeat in a state Trump had won in November. Additionally, while Republicans managed to hold two of the most pro-Trump House districts in Florida, both GOP candidates failed to match Trump’s performance from the presidential election.
These elections—marking the first major contests since Trump reassumed office—were widely viewed as an initial gauge of voter sentiment. Trump has moved swiftly to reshape the federal government, frequently clashing with the courts while pushing the limits of executive power and seeking retribution against opponents.
Historically, the party that loses the presidency in November tends to gain seats in the subsequent midterm elections. Tuesday’s results offered a glimmer of hope for Democrats, who have been grappling with both internal divisions and external criticism regarding their response to Trump’s administration, that they could follow this historical trend.
Republican Strategist Highlights Voter Turnout Problem
Charlie Kirk, a prominent conservative activist and podcaster whose organization collaborated with Musk to support conservative Brad Schimel in Wisconsin, acknowledged that Tuesday’s Supreme Court loss underscored a major challenge for Republicans—particularly in elections where Trump himself is not on the ballot.
“We did a lot in Wisconsin, but we fell short. We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now,” Kirk posted on X, referencing low-propensity voters who do not consistently participate in elections. “The party has been remade. Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy.”
Wisconsin Shifts Left in Key Contest
Trump had secured Wisconsin in November by a narrow margin of 0.8 percentage points, translating to fewer than 30,000 votes. However, the first significant election since he assumed office in January indicated a notable shift toward Democrats, and not just in traditional liberal strongholds.
Sauk County, located northwest of Madison, serves as a political bellwether for the state. Trump had won the county in November by 626 votes, yet in this election, it swung 16 percentage points in favor of Judge Susan Crawford, the liberal candidate backed by national Democratic leaders and billionaire donors like George Soros.
Crawford’s victory was driven not only by robust Democratic turnout but also by improved performance in suburban Milwaukee counties, where Republicans typically count on strong margins.
She secured wins in Kenosha and Racine counties, both of which had supported Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in November. In these areas, she led by about 10 percentage points.
Voter participation was just under 50%, a significant increase of 10 percentage points from the previous record turnout for a Wisconsin Supreme Court election, which had been set only two years prior.
Voters Express Opposition to Trump and Musk
In conversations with voters across the state—including more than 20 in Waunakee, a politically mixed town north of Madison—many Democrats indicated that their votes were not just about the state Supreme Court’s future but also a referendum on Trump’s early months in office.
“This is our chance to say no,” said Linda Grassl, a retired OB-GYN registered nurse, after casting her ballot at the Waunakee Public Library.
Theresa Peer, a 49-year-old business owner from Milwaukee, echoed this sentiment, calling the election a “fight for our democracy.” She expressed hope that Crawford’s victory would be seen as a “symbol of opposition” to Trump’s policies, particularly regarding reproductive rights and cuts to education funding.
Some voters also voiced concern over Musk’s substantial involvement in the race.
“I don’t like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in,” said Antonio Gray, a 38-year-old security guard from Milwaukee. “They should let the voters vote for who they want to vote for instead of inserting themselves like they have.”
Schumer Calls Results a Political Warning
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer interpreted the results as a rebuke of Trump’s leadership.
“This is a political warning shot from the American people,” Schumer said in a floor speech Wednesday, adding that the results demonstrated “Democrats’ message is resonating.”
“Just 70 days into Trump 2.0, Americans are tired of the chaos. They are tired of Elon Musk attacking Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare,” he stated.
Republican Leaders Caution Against Overinterpretation
Former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker acknowledged that one of the GOP’s challenges in the race was making the contest about Trump—a difficult task in a judicial election. He speculated that the outcome might have been different had Trump visited the state rather than merely participating in a telephone town hall.
“If you’re somebody who showed up for Trump because you feel forgotten, you don’t typically show up to vote in” these types of elections, Walker explained, suggesting that many Republican voters may have questioned, “What does this have to do with Trump?”
Despite the outcome, Walker advised against drawing broad national conclusions from the results.
“I’d be a little bit careful about reading too much into what happens nationally,” he cautioned.
Florida Republicans Hold Seats but Underperform
Trump had more success in Florida, where Republican Randy Fine secured victory in the 6th Congressional District to replace Mike Waltz, who had resigned to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. However, Fine’s margin of victory was 14 percentage points lower than Waltz’s, who had won the district by 33 points just five months earlier.
“This is the functional equivalent of Republicans running a competitive race in the district that is represented by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries before the election, referencing the progressive New York congresswoman whom Trump frequently criticizes. “Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points. Do you think a Republican would even be competitive in that district in New York, currently held by Alex? Of course, not.”
Additionally, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont to retain the northwest Florida seat vacated by Matt Gaetz. However, Patronis also failed to match Gaetz’s previous margin of victory.
The two Republican wins expanded the party’s House majority to 220-213, a factor that had previously raised concerns within the GOP about maintaining control. Those concerns had influenced Trump’s decision to withdraw the nomination of New York Representative Elise Stefanik for the position of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Trump Remains the Central Draw for Republican Voters
For many voters in these Florida districts, their primary motivation was Trump himself.
Teresa Horton, 72, admitted she was unfamiliar with the candidates on her ballot but voted Republican without hesitation.
“I don’t even know these people that are on there,” she said. “I just went with my ticket.”
Brenda Ray, 75, a retired nurse, shared a similar perspective, stating that she didn’t know much about Patronis but supported him because she believed he would “vote with our president.”
“That’s all we’re looking for,” she added.
Despite being significantly outspent by their Democratic challengers, both Fine and Patronis managed to secure victories. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, framed this as a testament to the party’s resilience rather than a cause for concern.
“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats,” Whatley said in a statement.