Speculation abounds regarding the potential selection of a running mate by former President Trump. The question looms: does this choice hold significant sway? Given Trump’s extraordinary polarizing nature, the impact of his running mate on shifting voters’ opinions is likely minimal. Trump’s dominant persona tends to overshadow anyone sharing the ticket with him.
Nonetheless, Trump is certain to exploit the search for a vice presidential candidate for its publicity and suspense. In a statement to Fox News’s Martha MacCallum in January, Trump hinted at having a pick in mind but refrained from disclosing further details. According to Politico, Trump’s staff members are actively vetting potential candidates as he discusses a wide array of names in private.
Despite these maneuvers, the peculiar dynamics of the 2024 political landscape remain unchanged. For the first time in roughly 130 years, a major party is poised to nominate a previously defeated ex-president.
Statistics regarding Trump’s favorability underscore the skepticism surrounding the potential impact of his choice of running mate. According to an Economist/YouGov poll, a mere 3 percent of Americans express no opinion on Trump. The overwhelming majority either hold very favorable or very unfavorable views, leaving little room for significant shifts in opinion based on his vice presidential choice.
Longtime Florida GOP operative John “Mac” Stipanovich echoed this sentiment, stating, “My hot take is that it doesn’t matter… Every mother’s son and daughter already has an opinion about Donald Trump and will vote accordingly.” Stipanovich’s stance reflects the entrenched positions of both supporters and detractors of the former president.
Despite such skepticism, speculation persists regarding potential candidates for Trump’s running mate and the eagerness with which some individuals seek the position. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina has emerged as a staunch Trump supporter, even after his own bid for the GOP nomination earlier this year. Similarly, Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Representative Elise Stefanik of New York have undergone notable transformations from former critics to fervent supporters of Trump.
Stefanik is among several women reportedly under consideration for the role, along with Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota and former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, now Governor of Arkansas. However, more controversial figures such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, former Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, and Kari Lake, a former TV anchor from Arizona, also feature in discussions, albeit as long-shot contenders.
Speculation abounds regarding whether selecting a female running mate could bolster Trump’s support among suburban women, a demographic with whom he has historically struggled. However, this notion is met with skepticism due to concerns about potential alienation of voters and the overriding influence of substantive issues like abortion.
In the 2016 election, Mike Pence was chosen, in part, to reassure evangelical voters—a demographic that appears firmly in Trump’s camp today. Consequently, the necessity for such reassurance may be diminished.
While some insiders argue for the significance of selecting an effective campaigner as a running mate, particularly in terms of amplifying the campaign’s message and responding to attacks, others emphasize the potential advantages of choosing a candidate from a battleground state.
However, few of the individuals frequently mentioned as potential running mates for Trump hail from true battlegrounds. The exception is Kari Lake, though her previous electoral defeat in Arizona casts doubt on her potential to sway the state in Trump’s favor.
Despite ongoing speculation, Democrats dismiss the significance of Trump’s choice of running mate, attributing any potential electoral outcomes primarily to Trump himself. Democratic commentator Bakari Sellers asserted, “It’s Trump who prevents a better image.”
As the veepstakes chatter persists, Trump is likely to prolong the suspense surrounding his potential pick. Nevertheless, it remains doubtful whether any candidate could significantly alter the course of the race.
