When Israeli forces eliminated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, many hoped it would mark a turning point for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare victory and pursue a ceasefire. However, over a week later, it is evident that this expectation was misguided. Despite securing several military victories, including Sinwar’s death and the earlier killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Netanyahu has shown no signs of de-escalating the conflict. Instead, he has vowed to continue the fight, leaving observers questioning his endgame.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, marked his 75th birthday while leading the country through its longest war. Although his international allies and many within Israel are pressuring him to end the conflict, particularly after the major military successes, Netanyahu’s focus appears to be on broader ambitions beyond neutralizing Hamas and Hezbollah. His rhetoric suggests a desire to alter the region’s power dynamics, with the death of Nasrallah described as a “necessary step” toward reshaping regional power for the foreseeable future. This ambition has raised concerns that Netanyahu may even be willing to escalate tensions with Iran.
The possibility of a direct confrontation with Iran looms large. On October 1, Iran launched a significant ballistic missile attack against Israel, heightening the risk of a larger conflict. Although Netanyahu vowed to retaliate, three weeks have passed without any concrete action, leaving the world waiting to see Israel’s next move. While the U.S. and other allies have urged Netanyahu to avoid targeting Iran’s nuclear and oil assets, it remains uncertain whether their calls for restraint will be heeded.
Netanyahu has stated that his military’s primary objective is to eliminate Iran’s proxies, namely Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, the situation on the ground has shown how difficult this goal may be to achieve. The Israeli military has already withdrawn from northern Gaza twice, each time claiming to have defeated Hamas in the region, only to return when signs of Hamas’ resurgence appeared. This area has once again become a war zone, with civilians bearing the brunt of the renewed violence.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah remains undeterred despite Israel’s military efforts. Over the weekend, a drone from Lebanon managed to bypass Israeli defenses and strike Netanyahu’s beach house in Caesarea, about 50 miles from the Lebanese border. This incident highlighted the ongoing threat posed by Hezbollah, even as Israel’s military campaign continues.
Netanyahu’s refusal to entertain a ceasefire deal, despite his military accomplishments, has sparked widespread anger within Israel. Weekly protests demanding an agreement with Hamas to secure the release of 101 hostages still held in Gaza have resumed. Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser and spokesperson for Netanyahu, emphasized the significance of the hostage issue for Netanyahu’s legacy. He noted that if Netanyahu fails to secure the hostages’ release, whether through military or diplomatic means, the prime minister’s leadership will be remembered for that failure. Bushinsky remarked, “If Netanyahu is not able to release any more hostages, either by military means or by diplomatic means, (people) are going to say he failed.”
The prospect of ending the war without achieving the release of the hostages has led to some questioning the decision to kill Sinwar, despite its initial popularity across Israel. Bushinsky warned, “People will say, ‘oh, you see, we made a mistake by eliminating the single individual you could negotiate with … who knows what would have happened, but at least you had some kind of door to knock on.’”
Netanyahu’s political situation is highly complex, as he is attempting to navigate the conflicting demands of his domestic allies. His government depends on far-right figures, such as Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who openly advocate for Israel to continue occupying Gaza and have even proposed establishing Jewish settlements there. This political alliance limits Netanyahu’s ability to pursue a ceasefire, as ending the war is not an option for his coalition partners.
Political scientist Gayil Talshir from Hebrew University pointed out that Netanyahu’s political circumstances have changed. “The usual Netanyahu that we’ve seen for the last 15 years would have probably gone for a national unity government and a big (ceasefire) agreement with the support of the U.S. But this is not the political situation we are actually in, so politically, with this coalition, he has no incentive to end the war,” she explained.
Furthermore, a national unity government would likely trigger a public inquiry into the failures that led to the October 7 attacks, something Netanyahu would want to avoid. Additionally, Netanyahu is still on trial for multiple charges of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. His testimony in the trial is scheduled to begin in December, making him the first sitting Israeli prime minister to appear in court as a defendant. Prior to the October 7 attacks, Netanyahu attempted to push through controversial judicial reforms that would have granted his government greater control over the courts, potentially influencing his trial. A national unity government would not allow for such reforms, further complicating his options.
Netanyahu also faces mounting pressure from the U.S. The Biden administration has been clear in its desire for Israel to move towards a deal that would end the war. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel earlier this week, urging Netanyahu’s government to de-escalate tensions. However, Netanyahu seems increasingly indifferent to U.S. pressure. Blinken’s trip marked his 11th visit to the Middle East in a year, but like his previous efforts, it appeared to yield little progress.
Netanyahu’s relationship with U.S. President Joe Biden has been fraught with tension, and this dynamic is likely to worsen in the coming months. With the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, Biden must carefully balance his approach to Israel to avoid alienating key voter groups. He needs to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza to retain the support of Arab-Americans and progressives, while continuing to back Israel to satisfy moderate and Jewish voters.
Talshir noted that the outcome of the U.S. election will significantly impact Netanyahu’s strategy. “He has a window of opportunity because there’s very little chance that Biden can restrain Netanyahu now. But after November 5, things are going to change,” she said, adding that Biden may exert greater pressure on Israel to end the war during the two-month period between the election and the new president’s inauguration. Biden has already signaled that this pressure could increase, warning that U.S. arms supplies to Israel might cease unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves.
Netanyahu’s aspirations may include waiting for former President Donald Trump to return to power, hoping that a Trump administration would help forge a defense alliance between the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia, a move that would bolster Netanyahu’s standing at home. Bushinsky suggested that if Netanyahu secures such a major victory, he might even consider stepping down. “Most people think that he won’t, but I worked with him…if he is able to end up as a big hero, someone who has done some kind of Churchillian act for the State of Israel, he would say to himself, enough is enough,” Bushinsky said.
Netanyahu’s ultimate goal seems to be securing his legacy as the prime minister who saved Israel. If he can achieve that, Bushinsky speculated, he might negotiate a deal to avoid a criminal record, allowing him to transition into a lucrative post-political career.
