A significant new poll indicates Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states, marking a substantial momentum shift for the Democratic party just three months before the election.
The poll shows the vice-president leading the former president by four percentage points—50% to 46%—across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This survey, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, sampled nearly 2,000 likely voters between August 5 and 9.
This polling period coincided with Harris’s announcement of Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and a former high school teacher from the Midwest, as her running mate for the November Democratic ticket.
The poll results offer the most definitive snapshot yet of voter sentiment in critical battleground states since Joe Biden exited the race, throwing his support behind Harris amid increasing concerns about his cognitive health and capacity to serve a second term. This development follows months of polling that showed Biden either neck-and-neck with or slightly trailing Trump.
Registered voters in these states perceive Harris as more intelligent, honest, and temperamentally suited to govern the country compared to Trump.
These findings, released on Saturday by the New York Times, are likely to energize the Democratic base as Harris and Walz continue their campaign across the country. This week marks their first together on the campaign trail, with multiple events planned in swing states that could determine the election outcome.
On Saturday, Harris and Walz held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada—a state that Biden and Harris won by over two points in the 2020 election.
Although the poll offers only a brief glimpse into the current state of the race, Democrats may find optimism in the fact that 60% of surveyed independent voters—a crucial demographic in determining election outcomes—expressed satisfaction with the presidential candidates. This is a marked increase from the 45% reported in May.
The shift appears to be largely influenced by changing voter perceptions of Harris, who has garnered praise for her positive and forward-looking speeches on the campaign trail. In Pennsylvania, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just over 80,000 votes in the previous election, Harris’s favorability rating among registered voters has increased by 10 points since last month, according to the Times/Siena polling data.
To secure a Democratic victory, Harris must win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—key battleground states that Biden won in 2020.
The latest polls may further frustrate Trump, whose recent campaign events have been dominated by anger and apparent disbelief at the swift change in momentum. Just weeks ago, Trump announced JD Vance, Ohio senator and former venture capitalist, as his running mate during the Republican national convention, which had a celebratory atmosphere.
Vance has faced criticism from Democrats, who have labeled him as “weird” due to his controversial comments in 2021 about the United States being run by “childless cat ladies.” The new poll shows that the majority of independents, Democrats, and even some Republicans view Vance unfavorably or with little enthusiasm.
Despite this, Democrats still face challenges in effectively communicating Harris’s vision for the country. The poll reveals that 60% of registered voters believe Trump has a clear vision for the nation, compared to 53% for Harris.
Moreover, Trump continues to lead in voter confidence on handling the economy and immigration—two of the three most critical issues for voters, according to the polls.
Nevertheless, Harris holds a significant 24-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, which Democrats hope will mobilize voters in crucial swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris is also perceived far more favorably than Trump regarding democracy. Trump remains embroiled in legal challenges, including charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his involvement in the January 6 Capitol insurrection.
In response to the poll, Tony Fabrizio, the Trump campaign’s chief pollster, asserted that the new surveys “dramatically understated President Trump’s support,” pointing to polling errors in the 2020 election that overestimated Biden’s margin of victory.
