In a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Democrat Kamala Harris has taken a notable lead over Republican Donald Trump, showing a 48%-43% advantage. This represents an eight-point turnaround from late June, when Trump led President Joe Biden by nearly four points in the same survey.
The shift in the race is largely attributed to significant changes in key demographic groups that have traditionally been vital for Democrats. Harris’s lead has been notably influenced by shifts among Hispanic, Black, and young voters. For instance, among those with annual incomes under $20,000, Trump’s previous three-point lead over Biden has transformed into a 23-point lead for Harris over Trump as of August.
This development marks a significant achievement for Harris, who has managed to secure a lead over Trump, something Biden had struggled to accomplish this year. Despite the small margin, Harris’s advantage reflects a shift in momentum, particularly following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which had a rallying effect on party supporters.
The poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters via landline and cellphone from Sunday to Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The focus on likely voters, as opposed to registered voters in previous polls, marks a shift in the survey’s methodology as the election approaches.
The detailed results, without rounding, show Harris with an edge closer to four points rather than five, at 47.6%-43.3%.
The success of Harris’s campaign strategies, particularly the targeted appeals made at the Democratic convention, is evident. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted, “With the ‘Brat Summer’ of Kamala Harris emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president. These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention.”
Significant changes since June include:
– Voters aged 18 to 34 have shifted from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, now favoring her 49%-36%.
– Hispanic voters, a group that the Republican campaign has been actively trying to engage, have shifted from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, with a current split of 53%-37%.
– Black voters, who have traditionally been a strong Democratic base, have moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, now showing 76%-12% in her favor.
– Harris has gained support among lower-income voters, who now back her 58%-35%. She has emphasized her commitment to an “opportunity economy” that focuses on affordable housing and addressing food price gouging, although she has not yet provided detailed policy plans.
The election dynamic has evolved as Harris stands as the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent nominated for president by a major party. At 59, she is considerably younger than Trump, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81.
Amy Hendrix, a 46-year-old independent voter from Fort Worth, Texas, expressed her enthusiasm, saying, “I think people are cautiously optimistic that they’re going to have a lot better chance with Harris than they would have had with Biden going head-to-head with Trump. I’m very excited to vote for a woman, and that’s just the truth.”
However, not all reactions have been positive. Jason Streem, a 46-year-old dentist from the Cleveland suburbs who supports Trump, criticized the manner in which Harris became the nominee. He remarked, “She was never part of the running process. She never received the primary votes.” He described the nomination process as “the most undemocratic way of picking a nominee.”
The rapid shift in the Democratic nomination occurred after Biden’s decision to step back from his reelection bid just over a month ago, influenced by party leaders and donors concerned about his chances of winning. This unexpected move paved the way for Harris’s swift nomination.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Biden’s support this year never exceeded 37.5%, and he trailed Trump by as little as half a percentage point in the spring, to nearly four points after the Biden-Trump debate in early summer.
This poll is the first since independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump. Current independent candidate Cornel West stands at 2%, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each hold 1%. When asked about their second choice among third-party supporters, 32% preferred Harris, 24% chose West, and 15% opted for Trump.
