Kamala Harris Surges Ahead in Presidential Race: Can She Sustain the Momentum?

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, has quickly risen to the forefront of the presidential race just three weeks into her campaign. This surge has put her ahead in horserace polling, a challenge that former President Joe Biden struggled to overcome during his time as a candidate. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.

The political landscape in the United States has been particularly tumultuous in recent weeks. Significant events, such as the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention, Trump’s selection of a running mate, Biden’s decision to exit the presidential race, and Harris’s choice of a vice-presidential candidate, have all contributed to the current dynamics. Each of these events alone would typically cause a temporary shift in polling numbers. However, the cumulative impact of these occurrences makes it difficult to determine the true state of the race. With the Democratic convention approaching, yet another potential shift in voter sentiment looms.

As the race evolves, questions arise about its structural changes and the possibility of Trump regaining the lead. A surge of polling in the coming days will begin to shed light on these uncertainties, followed by a critical two-month period of intense polling. Several key metrics have emerged as indicators of Harris’s early success, including her rising personal favorability and the narrowing gap in Trump’s advantage on economic issues, a core aspect of his campaign.

Neil Newhouse, lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, commented on the nature of the race, saying, “Presidential campaigns are a marathon, and this one has turned into a sprint. And that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”

To gain a deeper understanding of the current state of the race, five key numbers should be closely monitored beyond the basic horserace polling.

Kamala Harris’ Favorability Rating

On June 27, Harris’s favorability rating stood at 39 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. As of now, that number has climbed to 45 percent. Voters are beginning to see Harris in a new light since she became the Democratic presidential candidate.

For the past three years, there has been a significant disparity between the number of voters who viewed Harris favorably and those who held an unfavorable opinion of her. However, that gap has narrowed. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, likely voters in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were nearly evenly split in their views of Harris, with 50 percent holding a favorable opinion and 48 percent an unfavorable one.

Despite this improvement, there is no guarantee that it will last. Trump’s campaign has already launched an advertising blitz in battleground states, attempting to portray Harris as “dangerously liberal.” This negative campaigning could potentially erode her favorability ratings, particularly as her record faces increased scrutiny following the initial excitement of her campaign rollout.

“Image is a precursor to ballot change,” said Newhouse. “You’ll see her image change before the ballot changes. You’ll see her unfavs go up, her very unfavs in particular.”

Trump, too, is experiencing a high point in his favorability, at least since the 2020 election. This surge follows the assassination attempt and the Republican convention, but it’s possible that his numbers might also recede to more typical levels, which have generally been unfavorable.

“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star is Born,’” observed Mark Mellman, lead pollster for then-Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s not unreal. It’s not unnatural. It’s not fake. But it’s not necessarily permanent. I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit.”

Third-Party Vote Share

On July 21, the percentage of voters indicating support for one of the three independent or third-party candidates—Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Jill Stein—stood at 12.2 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. Today, that number has dropped to 7.1 percent.

While this metric is technically part of the horserace question, it also provides insight into an election where a larger portion of voters now appears to favor their primary options. This shift is attributed to Harris’s surge in popularity and the post-assassination and post-conviction rise in Trump’s favorability. Before Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket, a significant portion of voters expressed dislike for both Biden and Trump, with as many as a quarter of voters falling into this category.

These voters, often referred to as “double-haters,” were seen as potentially decisive in the election. However, their numbers have dwindled. A recent Monmouth University poll revealed that only 8 percent of registered voters now hold unfavorable views of both major-party candidates. Consequently, there are fewer voters inclined to support Kennedy, West, or Stein.

Voter Enthusiasm

Among Democrats, 62 percent are “very enthusiastic” about the election, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Among Republicans, the figure is slightly higher, at 63 percent.

While higher enthusiasm doesn’t always translate into victory, as seen in the 2012 election where Romney supporters were more enthusiastic than Obama’s, Harris has managed to energize the Democratic base in a way that Biden and the fear of a second Trump term had not. In the New York Times/Siena College polls, Democrats and Harris supporters expressed enthusiasm for voting at levels comparable to Republicans and Trump supporters.

The enthusiasm gap is even more pronounced in the Monmouth poll, where 85 percent of Democrats described themselves as enthusiastic about the Harris-Trump race, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. The level of enthusiasm among Republicans remained unchanged from June, when Monmouth pollsters inquired about a potential Trump-Biden rematch. However, for Democrats, this represents a significant shift, as only 46 percent expressed enthusiasm about the rematch before the debate.

While enthusiasm alone doesn’t guarantee more votes, it could play a crucial role in a close race by closing the energy gap between supporters of different candidates.

Perceptions on Economic Leadership

In June, Trump held a substantial lead over Biden on the economy, with 54 percent of voters favoring him compared to Biden’s 45 percent, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll. Now, the gap has narrowed significantly, with Trump at 51 percent and Harris at 48 percent.

Trump’s strong advantage on economic issues has been a central feature of his campaign. However, Harris’s entry into the race has disrupted this dynamic. Polls now show a much closer contest on economic leadership between Trump and Harris, with Trump holding a slight edge of 3 points in a national NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll and 6 points in the Rust Belt battlegrounds surveyed by the New York Times/Siena College.

Harris is eager to establish her own record on the economy. She has planned an event in North Carolina to present her plan to lower costs, signaling her intent to differentiate herself from Biden’s record on inflation, which could be a significant challenge for her campaign.

National Direction Perception

On June 27, 25 percent of voters believed the country was heading in the right direction, while 65 percent thought it was on the wrong track. Today, these figures remain unchanged.

Although this metric hasn’t shifted, voters’ perceptions of it may be evolving. Previously, Trump was seen as the candidate representing change, a favorable position given that two-thirds of voters viewed the country as heading in the wrong direction. However, Harris’s entry into the race has complicated Trump’s status as the candidate of change. She is now positioning herself as the fresh, new face of the campaign, with an emphasis on her youth and vision for the future. This contrasts with Trump, who at 78 years old, is the first person in 80 years to be his party’s presidential nominee in three consecutive elections.

Trump and his supporters will likely focus on convincing voters that Harris, as vice president, bears responsibility for the current state of the country and should be held accountable for the perceived wrong direction.