Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to become the Democratic presidential nominee, barring any unforeseen events. Harris gained support on Monday, following President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not seek reelection.
Numerous potential Democratic contenders have endorsed Harris, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also expressed her support for Harris on Monday, having withheld endorsement during her initial reaction to Biden’s decision to step aside.
The key question now is whether Harris can defeat former President Donald Trump. Here are the primary arguments for and against her candidacy:
Democrats Are Finally United and Excited
The Democratic Party is eager to move past recent divisions and low spirits. The party was thrown into turmoil after Biden’s poor debate performance in Atlanta on June 27, leading to intense internal strife between his critics and supporters. The rapid consolidation around Harris indicates a strong desire to move forward. With the Democratic National Convention in Chicago less than a month away and the election just over 100 days away, the party is eager to rally behind her.
Harris’s candidacy generates excitement for several reasons. She is the first woman, Black person, and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president and is now aiming for the highest office. Her campaign’s momentum is also reflected in the flood of donations, with the Harris campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and related fundraising committees raising $81 million in just 24 hours.
Age Issue Shifts to Democrats’ Favor
Concerns about age and mental sharpness ended Biden’s political career at 81. In contrast, Harris is 59, removing a significant vulnerability for Democrats. This shift puts the spotlight on the 78-year-old Trump, who has had his own gaffes, including confusing Pelosi’s name with his former primary rival Nikki Haley and mistakenly referring to Biden as Obama on several occasions.
A poll by ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos following the Atlanta debate revealed that 85% of adults believed Biden was too old for a second term, while 60% thought the same about Trump. This is a vulnerability Harris can exploit.
Trump’s Unpopularity
Despite media focus on the resilience of Trump’s MAGA base, he remains broadly unpopular nationwide. According to the polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump is viewed unfavorably by about 53% of Americans and favorably by only 42%. These figures have slightly improved following an assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pa., on July 13, but his unpopularity remains a significant factor.
Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. His presidency was marred by the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, a civil trial where he was found liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll, and a criminal trial with 34 felony convictions. Democrats believe they have a strong chance if they can frame the November election as a referendum on Trump, a goal more achievable with Harris as the nominee.
Harris Leads on Reproductive Rights
Since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Harris has been at the forefront of the Biden administration’s defense of reproductive rights, making her the leading voice on the Democrats’ strongest campaign issue. The pro-abortion rights stance has consistently won statewide votes on related ballot measures, and even Trump acknowledges this as a crucial factor in the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong performance in the 2022 midterms. Harris’s potential to become the first female president adds intensity to the abortion debate.
Harris’s Low Favorability Ratings
During the peak of Biden’s crisis, some supporters argued that Harris might not fare better. She trails Trump by almost 3 percentage points nationally, according to The Hill/DDHQ polling average. This performance is not significantly better than Biden’s at the time of his withdrawal, though Biden’s standing was rapidly declining.
Harris’s favorability ratings are worse than Trump’s. She is nearly 20 points underwater in the DDHQ average, viewed negatively by about 56% of Americans and positively by only 38%. This indicates that Democratic enthusiasm for Harris is not mirrored among centrist voters. An Economist/YouGov poll last week showed that more than twice as many independents viewed her unfavorably compared to favorably, at 58% to 26%.
Harris’s 2020 Campaign Failures
Critics of Harris often cite her underwhelming 2020 campaign. She launched her bid for the Democratic nomination in January 2019 with a large rally in Oakland, but her campaign never gained significant traction. The high point came during a July 2019 debate when she criticized Biden for his past opposition to school busing. Harris eventually dropped out before the Iowa caucuses. Skeptics worry that the same issues—questions about her authenticity, failure to connect with voters, and internal staff conflicts—could resurface this fall.
Potential Bias Against Harris
A sensitive issue in Harris’s candidacy is whether she could be hindered by voter prejudice. Some question whether the nation is ready to elect a Black woman as president. Proponents argue that Obama’s presidency broke racial barriers, and women’s political prominence has significantly increased. However, notable female politicians, such as Hillary Clinton in 2016, have fallen short, raising concerns about lingering misogyny.
Supporters claim that many attacks on Harris, including criticisms of her laugh, rhetoric, and dancing, reflect a double standard compared to white or male counterparts. These criticisms contribute to her low approval ratings.
Harris’s Association with Immigration Issues
Immigration remains one of the Democrats’ biggest vulnerabilities heading into November, and Harris is closely associated with it. Unauthorized southern border crossings have declined recently but reached an all-time high last December. Trump has blamed Harris for the “worst border ever” due to her role as “border czar,” though CBS News clarified that this title does not officially exist and that the Department of Homeland Security primarily handles immigration.
Harris was tasked with addressing the root causes of Central American migration under Biden, a complex and perhaps unsolvable issue. Her strong association with immigration is a weakness that Trump and the GOP are likely to exploit to their advantage.
While Harris’s candidacy brings renewed excitement and unity among Democrats, she faces significant challenges, including her low favorability ratings and the potential for voter bias. Her leadership on reproductive rights and the shift in the age debate offer advantages, but her past campaign struggles and association with immigration issues could pose hurdles in the upcoming election.
