The nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate has introduced a significant shift in the race, with implications that are still unfolding. Her potential to become the first female U.S. president brings the role of the women’s vote into sharp focus for the upcoming November election.
Looking back at the 2022 midterm elections, the women’s vote played a crucial role in countering the expected “red wave,” leading Democrats to perform better than anticipated. This election took place shortly after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, allowing states to impose strict limitations on abortion access. The ruling galvanized a higher-than-expected turnout among women, particularly young women, who supported Democratic candidates in the House of Representatives and state elections.
Now, with Vice President Harris stepping into the role of the Democratic candidate, there is a renewed wave of enthusiasm among Democrats, especially women. Polls conducted weeks before Harris’ nomination showed President Joe Biden trailing behind his Republican opponent, Donald Trump. However, Harris’ emergence has energized many, with women’s health, abortion rights, and reproductive freedom—issues Harris has long championed—taking center stage in the campaign. According to Brookings Institution’s Elaine Kamarck, these issues will be pivotal in the election. Harris has also advocated for policies important to women, including paid parental leave, child care, and economic policies that resonate with younger and minority women. The support for Harris from women’s groups is already visible through increased funding and outreach efforts.
With Harris leading the ticket, the question arises: Will this newfound enthusiasm and potential surge in female voter turnout be sufficient to secure her victory in November? To explore this, it’s essential to review the role of women’s votes in recent presidential elections, identify the demographics most favorable to Democratic candidates, and examine how gender differences in voter turnout could provide women with an electoral advantage. Additionally, analyzing the demographic shifts among female voters from 2012 to the present reveals a rise in Democratic-leaning groups within this electorate. Finally, a simulation of the 2024 election, based on recent polling data, offers insights into Harris’ chances if this enthusiasm translates into increased voter turnout and support among women.
Historically, women have shown a consistent preference for Democratic candidates in presidential elections. Since 1984, women have consistently voted for Democrats over Republicans. This trend is evident in recent elections, as illustrated by the Democratic-Republican (D-R) vote margins by gender from 2000 to 2020. In each election, the D-R margins have been positive for women, who have leaned more Democratic than men, regardless of the party that ultimately won the presidency.
The 2020 election, in particular, highlighted significant gender disparities in voting patterns across battleground states. In seven key states, only one of which (North Carolina) was won by Trump, women exhibited positive D-R margins, while men showed negative margins. The most pronounced gender disparities were observed in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, where women’s votes were crucial in securing Democratic victories.
These gender differences extended across various demographic groups in the 2020 election. Women’s D-R margins were higher than men’s in groups that traditionally lean Democratic, such as Black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters aged 18 to 29. Even among non-college-educated white women, who generally favor Republicans, the negative D-R margins were smaller compared to their male counterparts. The only exception was among Asian American voters, where men’s D-R margins were higher than women’s.
Beyond partisan preferences, voter turnout rates will play a crucial role in determining women’s influence in the upcoming election. Since 1980, women have consistently exhibited higher turnout rates than men in presidential elections. In the 2020 election, these turnout rates reached their highest levels in decades. Due to their higher turnout and longer life expectancy, there were 9.7 million more female voters than male voters in 2020.
Women’s higher turnout rates also contributed to their majority share of the electorate, comprising 53% of all voters in 2020. However, this share varies across different demographic groups. For instance, women accounted for 58% of Black voters, 55% of Asian voters, and 54% of Hispanic voters. Among voters aged 65 and older, 54% were women. Even within the white non-college graduate group, which tends to favor Republicans, women still made up a majority of 52%.
As the size of the female electorate continues to grow, its demographic composition is also evolving. Between 2012 and 2024, there have been notable shifts in the profile of eligible female voters by race and education. Specifically, there have been gains in women’s groups that are more likely to vote Democratic—such as white college graduates and women of color—and a decline in the women’s group that tends to favor Republicans—white non-college graduates. For the first time in a presidential election, the latter group will comprise less than 40% of the female electorate.
Similar demographic shifts are evident in the battleground states, where the female electorate has become more diverse and Democratic-leaning. In states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, there has been a decline in the share of white non-college-educated women and an increase in the share of women of color. For example, in Nevada, the proportion of white non-college-educated women decreased from 48% in 2012 to 35% in 2024, while the proportion of women of color increased from 36% to 47% over the same period. These demographic changes have contributed to a more Democratic-leaning voter profile among women in these states.
As polls conducted before and after Harris’ nomination reveal, there are early indications of how the 2024 election might unfold. Three polls of likely voters conducted by the New York Times/Siena College on June 26, July 3, and July 25—after Biden’s endorsement of Harris—show shifts in D-R voting margins among men and women. Notably, the D-R margin for women stood at 14% in favor of Harris versus Trump on July 25, while the negative D-R margin for men remained high at 17%.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate has the potential to reshape the dynamics of the 2024 election, particularly with regard to the women’s vote. The enthusiasm and support for Harris among women, coupled with the changing demographic composition of the female electorate, suggest that women will play a decisive role in the outcome of the election. If this newfound enthusiasm translates into higher voter turnout and increased support for Harris among women, it could significantly boost her chances of winning the presidency in November.
