In South Asia, the traditional sources of power are being replaced by the influence of its vast populations. Recent events highlight this shift. In Myanmar, the military junta led by Min Aung Hlaing, which overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government in 2021, is now embroiled in a civil war with rebels controlling half the country. Sri Lanka’s once-dominant Rajapaksa brothers, who ruled as president and prime minister, were forced to flee in 2022 after widespread protests against economic hardship. In 2023, Pakistan’s army experienced an unprecedented challenge when protesters, angered by the arrest of ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, stormed military installations, including the Lahore corps commander’s house and the army headquarters in Rawalpindi. Most recently, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had just completed 20 years in power, faced a major uprising. A student protest escalated into a full-scale insurrection, forcing her to flee to India with only 45 minutes to spare.
For India, the sudden downfall of Hasina’s regime is a significant diplomatic and strategic blow. India had supported Hasina for over a decade and a half, despite her increasingly authoritarian tendencies. Now, experts criticize New Delhi for failing to uphold democratic principles and warn Hasina against crossing those lines. The January elections, boycotted by the opposition, resulted in a fourth consecutive term for Hasina but were widely regarded as flawed, damaging both her legacy and India’s reputation for remaining silent. This anger spilled onto Dhaka’s streets after her ouster, with reports of violence against the Hindu minority and desecration of temples. Mahfuz Anam, editor of the Dhaka-based *Daily Star*, commented, “There were many who felt that given the influence India exerted over Sheikh Hasina, New Delhi should have restrained her. Now, it is facing the flak for being complicit. India should stop looking at us through the prism of religion and instead view us through the prism of democracy. Despite the stray incidents of violence, India can rest assured that Bangladesh is not Afghanistan or Pakistan. We are a moderate Muslim majority country with a strong Bengali culture of our own.”
The United States was also concerned about Hasina’s undemocratic actions but relied on India’s assessment that Hasina’s leadership was crucial in keeping Islamist extremism at bay and preventing Chinese influence from growing in the Bay of Bengal. Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, remarked, “New Delhi followed a policy of supporting Hasina no matter what. India could have warned her of the risks of intensifying authoritarianism that began to define her government in the past several years. But India was afraid that any sort of intensification of her vulnerability would open the door either to the Islamist Opposition that does not wish India well in any case or to exploitation by China. The policy worked when Hasina controlled the reins of power. But the moment the domestic cataclysm ended up with her being on the out, Delhi’s entire Bangladesh policy has come apart and come under criticism about its direction.”
Tellis is sympathetic to India’s predicament, pointing out that “India’s curse” is being surrounded by countries with deep internal divisions, leading to unstable relationships. When pro-India parties are in power, relations improve dramatically, but when other political forces gain ground, ties deteriorate. The problem is compounded by the fact that many of India’s neighbors are relatively new nations, like Bangladesh, which only became independent in 1971. Former National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon notes that India has significant influence in the region, both economically and culturally, but faces challenges due to the way some of these nations define themselves in opposition to India. Menon highlights a comment attributed to General Zia-ul-Haq, the former Pakistani ruler, who reportedly said, “If an Egyptian stops being a Muslim, he still remains an Egyptian. But if a Pakistani stops being a Muslim, he becomes an Indian.” Menon’s point is that new nation-states often need an external enemy to unify their citizens, making India a convenient target.
Bangladesh, which shares a long border with India, has always been strategically important. After its founder Sheikh Mujibur Rehman was assassinated in 1975, subsequent governments were hostile to India, despite New Delhi’s role in its independence. However, when Hasina returned to power in 2009, India enjoyed a period of cooperation, settling land disputes and enhancing transboundary connectivity. Former foreign secretary Harsh Shringla, who served as high commissioner to Bangladesh, said, “We have made huge progress with Bangladesh in the past 15 years, more than what we did in the previous 35 years. It’s important for us to work with the new dispensation there to continue that level of progress for ourselves and for the people of Bangladesh. Any instability or the lack of goodwill on the part of the new administration in Bangladesh could impact us in the Northeast and on issues such as transit and connectivity. At the same time, India would also have significant leverage over Bangladesh. Cooperation for mutual benefit is best for both neighbors.”
India’s deteriorating influence in its neighborhood is not limited to Bangladesh. The Maldives, another strategically important neighbor, recently saw a regime change that strained relations with India. Under President Ibrahim Solih from 2018 to 2023, India made significant strides in economic and security agreements. However, after Solih lost to Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned on an “India Out” platform, relations soured. Muizzu ordered the removal of Indian military personnel and signed multiple agreements with China, which could threaten India’s security interests in the Indian Ocean.
In Nepal, the frequent changes in prime ministers have led to fluctuating ties with India. The return of K.P. Sharma Oli, seen as pro-China, has raised concerns. Oli’s previous tenure was marked by nationalistic fervor and contentious border disputes with India. Ranjit Rae, a former ambassador to Nepal, warned against complacency, noting that “The Chinese and Americans are very active in Nepal and India should be far more engaged with all players in the country.”
In Myanmar, where India shares a long border, the Modi government is also at risk of repeating its mistakes in Bangladesh by supporting the unpopular military junta led by General Hlaing. Former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, stated, “India is perceived as being with the SAC, which means that the vast majority of Myanmar’s population views us negatively. Myanmar is being driven now by federal and democratic sentiments and India has the opportunity of not being a pale imitation of China but to use its biggest calling card to push for a federal democratic system similar to ours. But we don’t seem to be reading the writing on the wall and remain pro-status quo.” However, not all experts agree, with some believing that India is right to support the current regime, given the military’s entrenched role in the country’s governance.
Pakistan’s military rulers also faced a crisis after ousting Imran Khan as prime minister. Khan’s arrest led to widespread protests, and his political influence remains strong despite attempts to marginalize him. The instability in Pakistan has led to renewed threats of terrorism in India, as the military seeks to strengthen its control.
China has also escalated tensions with India, particularly with its incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh in 2020. Despite multiple rounds of talks, China has not withdrawn from key positions, and relations between the two countries remain strained. China has also been actively engaging with India’s neighbors through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), increasing its influence in the region.
To rejuvenate its Neighbourhood First policy, India must focus on economic integration with its neighbors and adopt a more flexible, cooperative approach. Former prime minister I.K. Gujral’s doctrine of offering more than what India takes from its neighbors could be a model to follow. Economically, India could take inspiration from China’s strategy of making adversaries dependent on it. Developing a strong regional trade association and pushing for a free trade agreement could also boost intra-regional trade.
Sri Lanka is an example of how India successfully navigated a crisis. After the 2022 economic collapse, India provided financial aid and investment, improving relations even amid changing political leadership. A similar approach could be adopted with other neighbors, focusing on economic stability and long-term interdependence.
