India has emerged as the leading performer among major global economies in the post-pandemic era, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman’s analysis.
India has distinguished itself as the strongest performer among major global economies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent analysis by Harvard economist Jason Furman. His comparative growth chart, shared on X, highlights how real GDP across key economies has shifted relative to their pre-COVID trajectories, with India notably exceeding its long-term growth trend.
Furman’s graph tracks the economic performance of the United States, Euro Area, China, Russia, and India from 2019 through projected figures for the third quarter of 2025. While many economies continue to grapple with the lingering effects of the pandemic, India’s growth trajectory stands out, showing a significant rise that is expected to reach +3% in 2024 and potentially +5% by the third quarter of 2025.
Furman emphasized that India’s impressive growth is not merely a temporary rebound but rather a result of its structural strengths. These include advancements in digital infrastructure, investment-friendly reforms, and a stable macroeconomic environment.
The chart illustrates a sharp decline for all major economies in 2020:
Euro Area: –25%
China: –10%
United States: –5%
India: –5%
Russia: –8%
Since that time, the recovery paths of these nations have diverged significantly.
The United States experienced a rapid recovery, bolstered by substantial fiscal support measures like the American Rescue Plan, allowing it to stand approximately +2% above trend by 2025. However, India’s resurgence far surpasses the post-pandemic recovery of the U.S.
India not only returned to its pre-COVID growth trend by 2022 but has also surged beyond it. Furman noted the following milestones:
2022: India regains its trendline
2024: Expected growth of +3%
Q3 2025 projection: +5%
According to Furman, the sustained momentum of India’s growth is driven by several factors, including:
Expanding domestic consumption
Strong investment inflows
Rapid rollout of digital infrastructure, including initiatives like UPI, Aadhaar, and e-governance
Production-linked incentives that bolster manufacturing
A stable policy environment
In contrast, China continues to struggle with challenges stemming from real estate stress and the after-effects of its zero-COVID policy, with projections indicating growth around –5% by 2025. Russia, hindered by sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, is expected to remain near –8%. The Euro Area, impacted by energy shocks and inflation, is projected to hover around –3%. While the U.S. is recovering, it faces concentration risks; Furman pointed out that 92% of U.S. growth in early 2025 is anticipated to come solely from AI-driven data center investments.
International institutions are echoing confidence in India’s economic momentum. ICRA forecasts a GDP growth of 7% in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output projected to rise to a five-quarter high of 7.8%. Moody’s Ratings also projects growth of 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, identifying India as the clear outperformer in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Greater China. Across the Asia-Pacific, Moody’s expects average growth to be just 3.4%, significantly lower than India’s anticipated pace.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates suggest that India could sustain an annual growth rate of 7-8%, driven by digital expansion, manufacturing incentives, a youthful workforce, and resilient services exports. Economists increasingly view India not only as a standout performer but also as a potential development model for other emerging economies navigating global uncertainties.
Source: Original article