GOP Convention Ends with Spectacle, Little Change in Tight Biden-Trump Race

The Republican National Convention was a spectacle featuring top lawmakers, emerging stars, and famous entertainers, including a former president who had survived an assassination attempt just days earlier. Media outlets heavily covered the event, deploying numerous journalists. Despite the fanfare, the race for the White House remains largely unchanged from when Republicans first gathered in Milwaukee.

President Joe Biden’s campaign continues to struggle amid calls for him to drop out, exacerbated by his disastrous debate performance last month. Donald Trump, who had promised a more unifying tone after surviving the assassination attempt, ultimately delivered a speech that mixed details of the shooting with his usual complaints about immigration, his 2020 election loss, and other grievances.

“Given the extraordinary, recent events, something as conventionalized as a convention may not move the needle, but Trump went into the convention with a lead and emerges with a lead, so they don’t need it to,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and former top Republican National Committee official.

The race has already been influenced by significant events. Biden’s debate performance was historically poor, and Trump became one of the few federal political candidates injured in an assassination attempt. Polls suggested Trump received a bump after June’s debate, but it’s unclear how the shooting has affected the race due to a lack of recent public surveys.

Strategists from both parties agree that significant historical events would be required to shift the race. Both Biden and Trump have been in the public eye for decades and have served in the highest-profile political position in the world. Voter opinions are largely established, making it difficult for any single event to cause significant polling fluctuations.

There has been considerable noise along the way. Besides the convention and Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts, Biden’s son was convicted on felony gun charges, and protests erupted over the war in Gaza, among other events. Despite this, polls have remained relatively stable.

“I think that this race at this point is so dug in, it takes what are akin to earthquakes to change anything,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.

There was widespread speculation that the Republican convention would make a significant impact. Trump was set to announce his vice-presidential pick, a process that had garnered intense political and media attention, and his ear was still bandaged less than 48 hours after the assassination attempt.

Beyond the political maneuvering, the event featured notable entertainment. Lee Greenwood repeatedly sang “God Bless the USA,” conservative media personality Tucker Carlson gave an impromptu speech, and wrestler Hulk Hogan tore off his shirt to reveal a Trump-Vance tank top.

Trump’s keynote address on Thursday night began with harrowing details of the assassination attempt before shifting to his usual rhetoric. He criticized the “invasion” at the southern border, called former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi “crazy,” and accused his political opponents of “cheating on elections.” Despite earlier promises to avoid mentioning Biden by name, Trump couldn’t resist.

“If you took the ten worst presidents in the history of the United States, think of it, the ten worst, added them up, they will not have done the damage that Biden has done. Only going to use the term once, Biden. I’m not going to use the name anymore, just one time. The damage that he’s done to this country is unthinkable,” Trump said.

These remarks indicate that Trump’s campaign remains largely unchanged, continuing to employ the same rhetoric that has characterized his campaign for months.

“I didn’t think it made a difference. If you watch that convention, you already got your mind made up,” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign. “The shooting probably had a bigger impact. But most of America has made up its mind.”

Despite this, the convention’s outcome is not entirely without significance. Some Democrats felt relieved that Trump’s remarks didn’t solely focus on unity, arguing that such a focus could have widened the gap between him and Biden in the polls, even though they acknowledged that the president likely trails currently.

“Overall, it doesn’t change anything, but they missed an opportunity to put this out of reach,” said a former senior Trump administration official about Trump’s speech.

“No, I don’t think the convention changed the fundamentals,” added a source familiar with the Biden campaign’s strategy. “A less MAGA VP pick and a more unifying message from Trump may have, but they opted to double down on MAGA and division.”