A study released on Friday predicts a significant rise in global life expectancy by 2050, despite current geopolitical, metabolic, and environmental challenges. The study, derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 and published in The Lancet journal, forecasts an increase of 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women.
However, the study also indicates that people will likely spend more of these additional years in poor health. This is primarily due to a shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs) to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes.
According to the research, global life expectancy is expected to rise to 78.1 years by 2050, representing a 4.5-year increase from current figures. Additionally, global healthy life expectancy (HALE) — the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health — is projected to increase to 67.4 years by 2050, an improvement of 2.6 years.
“In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen,” said Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
Murray emphasized that the most significant opportunity to reduce the global disease burden lies in policy interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating behavioral and metabolic risk factors. “There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure,” he stated.
The findings underscore the importance of addressing non-communicable diseases, which are poised to become the predominant health challenges globally. The research highlights the need for robust health policies that focus on preventive measures to curb the rise of these conditions.
The shift from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases marks a significant transition in global health trends. While advancements in medical science and public health have led to a decline in communicable diseases, the increasing prevalence of NCDs presents new challenges. These diseases are often linked to lifestyle factors such as poor diet, lack of physical activity, and exposure to tobacco and alcohol.
This trend underscores the necessity for comprehensive health strategies that encompass preventive care, early detection, and management of NCDs. Policymakers and health professionals must prioritize interventions that target these risk factors to improve health outcomes and reduce the disease burden.
The anticipated rise in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy indicates progress in global health but also highlights the need for sustained efforts to address health disparities. The reduction in geographical disparities in life expectancy suggests that more regions will experience improvements in health outcomes, but it also calls for targeted efforts to support areas that lag behind.
Murray’s call for policy interventions reflects a broader consensus among health experts on the importance of addressing behavioral and metabolic risk factors. Effective policies can lead to significant health improvements and contribute to the overall well-being of populations.
The study’s projections serve as a reminder of the ongoing challenges in global health and the critical role of preventive measures in addressing these challenges. As the global population continues to grow and age, the burden of non-communicable diseases is expected to increase, necessitating proactive and comprehensive health strategies.
While the projected increase in global life expectancy by 2050 is a positive development, it comes with the caveat that people will spend more years in poor health due to the rise of non-communicable diseases. Addressing these diseases through effective policy interventions targeting behavioral and metabolic risk factors is essential for improving global health outcomes. The study highlights the need for a concerted effort to tackle the emerging health challenges and ensure that the gains in life expectancy translate into better quality of life for all.
