In a recent NPR/PBS/Marist survey, President Joe Biden is shown leading former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 48% in a direct head-to-head matchup. However, when third-party candidates are included, Trump takes a slight edge, with Biden trailing by one point. These results are within the poll’s 3.1-point margin of error.
Trump has gained momentum, with Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker showing him ahead by 2.7 points, reflecting a 1.2-point increase in his favor since the debate. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker also indicates Trump leading by 2.1 points, marking a 1.9-point rise from June 27.
A poll conducted by ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post and released on Thursday reveals that Biden and Trump are currently tied among registered voters. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considered as an option, Trump leads by one point. This is seen as a positive outcome for Biden following the June 27 debate.
The poll highlights concerns about Biden’s age, with 67% of respondents believing he should withdraw from the race and 85% thinking he is too old to serve as president, up from 81% in April and 68% a year ago. Among Biden supporters, 54% think he should drop out, and 81% believe he is too old for another term.
Trump’s lead extends further in other polls. The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump ahead by three points over Biden, and Morning Consult’s weekly survey also indicates a two-point lead for Trump. A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from June 28 to July 2 gives Trump a six-point advantage, representing a three-point swing in his favor since the previous poll, marking his widest lead in any poll by these groups since he began his first presidential campaign in 2015.
Similarly, a Wall Street Journal survey conducted after the debate finds Biden trailing Trump by six points, the largest gap recorded by Journal surveys since 2021 in a two-way matchup, showing a four-point increase in Trump’s lead since February. A CBS/YouGov post-debate poll taken in seven crucial battleground states shows Trump leading Biden by three points, reversing a one-point deficit from the previous month.
News Peg
Despite the increasing calls from 11 Democrats in the House, one in the Senate, several prominent pundits, and multiple major news outlets for Biden to reconsider his candidacy post-debate, Biden has firmly decided to stay in the race. However, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., indicated on Wednesday that Biden’s decision might not be final. Speaking on MSNBC, Pelosi said, “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,” adding, “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”
Crucial Quote
“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden stated in a letter to congressional Democrats on Monday.
What We Don’t Know
It remains uncertain how potential replacement candidates would perform against Trump in November. Most polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris, who is considered the most likely candidate to replace Biden if he steps down, would do better than other potential Democratic contenders like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Harris and Biden’s poll results against Trump are similar, with some surveys showing Harris performing slightly better and others showing Biden with a slight edge. However, the impact of months of campaigning by Harris or another candidate without her national recognition is unknown.
What To Watch For
Polls prior to the debate consistently indicated that Trump leads Biden in the seven key swing states that are likely to decide the election outcome. A May Cook Political Report survey showed Trump with a three-point lead on average in these states. Similarly, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points across these battleground states. An April poll by the New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer indicated Trump would win in five out of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada), with Biden only ahead in Wisconsin.
Surprising Fact
In such a tight race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent run could significantly impact the election outcome, although it is unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found that Trump’s lead over Biden increases from two points to five when Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornell West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included. Kennedy Jr. received 6% support, while 10% of voters were undecided. A May Fox poll showed a two-point increase in Trump’s lead with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. attracts votes from key Biden supporters, securing 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest. His support rises to 18% among voters aged 18 to 29 and 14% among Hispanic voters. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Conversely, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a direct matchup but leading by two points when Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included.
Tangent
Polls consistently suggest that Biden and the Democratic Party have been losing support among crucial demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters, who previously largely supported the party. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey indicated voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points, and Biden leads among Gen Z/millennials by six points in a direct matchup. However, with third-party candidates included, the vote swings in Trump’s favor, by six points among Gen Z/millennials and eight points among voters under 45. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found Biden tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states and trailing by four points among 18- to 29-year-olds in those states. These groups supported Biden with more than 60% in 2020. Biden also seems to be losing ground in Democratic strongholds like New York, where he is nine points ahead of Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump by 23 points in 2020.
Key Background
Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after securing their respective party nominations in March, ending the primary season earlier than usual. Polls show historically low voter enthusiasm, with both candidates having relatively low favorability ratings—below 45%. The NBC poll revealed that 64% of voters are “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has centered his campaign on his legal challenges, accusing prosecutors and judges of conspiring with Biden to damage his election chances, though there is no evidence to support this claim. Biden, on the other hand, has portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the January 6 Capitol riots, and has criticized Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Polls show that voters consistently consider the economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation as top issues. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more on abortion.
