Category: Demographics

Italy Seeks Solutions for Falling Birth Rates

Staff ReporterConflict, Demographics, India 0

The Italian town of Fregona, like many others, is grappling with a declining birthrate and migration, threatening its future and prompting local leaders to seek creative solutions to keep essential services like schools open.

Walking through the narrow main street of Fregona, located at the foot of Italy’s picturesque mountains, Mayor Giacomo de Luca points out businesses with closed shutters and faded signs. Among them are two supermarkets, a barbershop, and several restaurants. This once bustling town is experiencing a rapid decline in population, with many Italians opting for the opportunities offered by bigger cities or even abroad.

The decline in residents has now put the local primary school at risk. The mayor explains that the new Year One class cannot proceed due to having only four children enrolled, falling short of the minimum requirement of ten students needed for funding. “The drop in births and in the population has been very, very sharp,” De Luca says.

In recent years, Fregona’s population has decreased by nearly 20%, accentuating the issue. By June of this year, the town had welcomed only four new births, and many of the 2,700 remaining residents are elderly. The demographic shift is evident in the local market, where older residents shop and socialize.

For Mayor De Luca, the potential closure of the school reception class would be a turning point. He worries that if children leave to attend school elsewhere, they might not come back. In response, he’s been visiting neighboring areas, including a pizza factory, to persuade families to enroll their children in Fregona’s school. The town council even offers incentives such as free minibus transportation and extended school hours until 6 p.m.

“I’m worried. Little by little, if things keep going like this, the village will die,” De Luca expresses his concern.

Fregona’s situation reflects a broader demographic crisis across Italy. Over the past ten years, the nation’s population has decreased by almost 1.9 million, with birthrates on a consecutive 16-year decline. Italian women now average 1.18 children, the lowest recorded level, which is below the EU average of 1.38 and far beneath the 2.1 replacement rate.

Despite attempts by Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government to promote family-friendly policies, the downward trend in birthrates continues unabated. Valentina Dottor, a resident of Fregona, highlights the caution many have when considering parenthood. Valentina receives a monthly allowance of about €200 for her 10-month-old daughter but feels it’s inadequate compared to the high cost of childcare.

Such financial constraints are a significant deterrent to having more children. “It’s difficult—because of work, schools, the money,” she adds. “There is some help, but it’s not enough to have babies. It won’t solve the problem.”

Recognizing these challenges, some companies in the Veneto region have implemented self-help schemes. One notable example is Irinox, a blast chiller manufacturer. In collaboration with seven other firms, they established a discounted and convenient on-site creche.

Melania Sandrin, a finance executive at Irinox, praises the proximity of the creche for providing peace of mind and preventing career disruptions. “Without the creche, I would have struggled to come back to work,” she admits.

CEO Katia da Ros argues for more comprehensive changes, suggesting services like free kindergartens would substantially impact addressing Italy’s population challenges. Meanwhile, increased immigration remains a contentious topic for Italy’s government, even as foreign workers become more integral to companies like Irinox.

Despite efforts like increased immigration, the closure of a primary school in nearby Treviso shows the stark reality. Pascoli Primary recently closed due to insufficient student enrollment, leaving families searching for alternatives. Eleanora Franceschi, whose 8-year-old daughter attended the school, emphasizes that the issue extends beyond the birthrate, pointing out inadequate school hours for working parents as a contributing factor.

Eleanora and others argue for better support services and practical aids, such as free summer camps, to align government goals for population growth with real-world support mechanisms for families.

“How can we have more babies in this situation?” Eleanora questions, encapsulating the frustrations of many Italian parents who contend that mere financial incentives aren’t enough.

As Italy faces an anticipated population drop of five million over the next 25 years, the pressure is mounting for comprehensive action to align economic policies with family support initiatives, a sentiment echoed by many in the affected communities.

According to BBC News.

Source: Original article

World Population Expected to Change by 2100: Key Facts

Staff ReporterDemographics, Global, Science & Technology 0

The world’s population growth will slow significantly by the year 2100, with notable demographic shifts across various regions and countries, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the UN’s World Population Prospects.

As the United Nations prepares to observe World Population Day on July 11, the focus turns to the changing global demographics expected in the coming decades. According to the latest projections from Pew Research Center, which analyzed the United Nation’s World Population Prospects, the world population is poised for major changes by the end of the century.

Global population, which more than tripled over the past 75 years, is now expected to increase by only 1.9 billion more people by 2100, rising from 8.2 billion in 2023 to 10.2 billion. The population is projected to reach a peak of 10.3 billion in 2084, before declining slightly as the century concludes.

India, China, and the United States—the three most populous countries as of 2025—are anticipated to experience markedly different demographic trajectories. India’s population is expected to grow until it peaks at 1.7 billion in 2061, followed by a gradual decrease to 1.5 billion by 2100. Meanwhile, China’s population has already started its decline, with projections seeing it fall to around 633 million by 2100. In contrast, the United States is projected to see steady population growth, reaching 421 million by the same year.

A handful of countries will drive over 60% of global population growth by 2100. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Tanzania. Currently, only Nigeria and Ethiopia rank among the ten most populous nations, but projections indicate that by 2100, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania will join those ranks.

The United States is the only country among the top ten contributors to population growth that is outside Africa and Asia. However, despite this growth, the U.S. is projected to drop from the third to the sixth most populous country globally by 2100.

Another significant trend is the aging of the global population. The median age is expected to rise from 31 today to 42 by 2100. The number of people aged 65 and older is projected to more than double, reaching 2.4 billion by 2100, which would consequently increase their share of the global demographic from 10% to 24%.

This demographic shift will result in a balance between those under 25 and those aged 65 and older by 2100, a stark contrast to the current scenario where those under 25 outnumber older adults roughly four-to-one. The decrease in the number of people under 25, projected to fall from 3.3 billion today to 2.9 billion by 2100, contributes to this change.

Africa remains distinctive as the youngest region worldwide, with a median age of just 19. While this figure is expected to rise to 35 by 2100, Africa is expected to stay the most youthful region. Latin America and the Caribbean have a significantly higher median age of 32, followed by Europe’s median age of 43, qualifying it as the world’s oldest region.

In comparison, the median age in the United States is 39, placing it among the oldest third of countries globally, yet still slightly younger than many high-income countries in Europe and East Asia.

These anticipated shifts in population numbers and dynamics underscore the profound changes the world may experience in terms of demographics and the accompanying social and economic impacts.

Source: Original article

Japan’s Vacant Housing Crisis: Nine Million Homes Empty as Population Decline Continues

Staff ReporterDemographics, Housing, News 0

The count of unoccupied residences in Japan has surged to an unprecedented nine million, exceeding the population of New York City, a reflection of the ongoing struggle with Japan’s dwindling population.

In Japan, deserted houses are commonly referred to as “akiya,” a term typically associated with dilapidated residential properties found in rural areas. However, the prevalence of akiya is expanding in major urban centers like Tokyo and Kyoto, posing a significant challenge for a nation already contending with an aging demographic and a declining birth rate.

Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies in Chiba, remarked, “This is a symptom of Japan’s population decline…It’s not really a problem of building too many houses, but a problem of not having enough people.”

Official data compiled by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reveals that 14% of all residential properties in Japan stand vacant. These figures encompass second homes as well as properties left unoccupied for various reasons, including owners working abroad temporarily.

However, not all vacant properties deteriorate like traditional akiya, which present a range of issues for the government and local communities. These problems include impeding efforts to revitalize declining towns, posing potential hazards due to neglect, and exacerbating risks for emergency responders during natural disasters in a country susceptible to earthquakes and tsunamis.

The issue of a surplus of homes stems from various factors. Akiya are often passed down through generations, but with Japan’s plummeting fertility rate, many lack heirs or are inherited by younger generations disinterested in rural living. Additionally, some houses remain in administrative limbo due to poor record-keeping by local authorities.

Consequently, the government faces challenges in rejuvenating rapidly aging rural communities, hindering initiatives to attract younger residents seeking alternative lifestyles or investors seeking bargains.

Under Japan’s tax policies, some owners find it economically favorable to retain properties rather than demolish them for redevelopment. Furthermore, even if owners wish to sell, they may struggle to find buyers, particularly for houses lacking access to public amenities.

While social media trends depict foreigners purchasing inexpensive Japanese houses for conversion into trendy guesthouses and cafes, Jeffrey Hall cautioned that the reality is more complex. He emphasized the administrative hurdles and language barriers foreigners face in navigating the process, suggesting that acquiring these houses inexpensively is unlikely.

Japan’s population decline has persisted for years, with the latest data indicating a decrease of over 800,000 individuals since the previous year, totaling 125.4 million in 2022. The birth rate, which has remained around 1.3 for an extended period, is far below the 2.1 required to sustain a stable population. Furthermore, the number of children under 15 has declined for the 43rd consecutive year, reaching a record low.

The imbalance between housing availability and population size is poised to persist. Yuki Akiyama, a professor at Tokyo City University’s faculty of architecture and urban design, highlighted the repercussions of vacant houses, citing their obstruction of evacuation routes during disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis.

Akiyama underscored the challenges faced in post-disaster reconstruction due to unclear ownership of damaged properties. In rural areas with a surplus of vacant houses, development initiatives have stalled, leading to diminished real estate values and perceptions of devaluation within communities.

Although Akiyama developed an AI program to predict areas vulnerable to akiya, he noted that this issue extends beyond Japan, with similar phenomena observed in the US and parts of Europe. However, Japan’s unique architectural history and cultural attitudes exacerbate the situation, as newer houses command higher prices, and historical buildings are not widely valued for residential purposes.

Japan’s surplus of vacant houses underscores the complex interplay between demographic trends, urbanization, and cultural attitudes toward property. Addressing this issue will require multifaceted solutions that consider economic, social, and administrative factors to revitalize communities and mitigate risks associated with abandoned properties.

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