The upcoming Vice Presidential election in India is generating significant speculation regarding the strategies of the ruling BJP and the opposition INDIA bloc.
New Delhi: The upcoming Vice Presidential election is shaping up to be a compelling political contest, with both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA bloc poised to announce their candidates in the coming days. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has convened a parliamentary party meeting today, while the opposition plans to hold its strategy session a day later, on Monday.
Indications from the BJP suggest that the party is likely to nominate a candidate with a background in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). A critical question remains whether the nominee will come from a forward caste or a backward community.
On the opposition front, it is almost certain that the Congress party will announce the candidate on behalf of the INDI Alliance. The decision looms over whether Congress will field a Jat leader, aiming to capitalize on farmer politics following the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankhar, or if it will opt for a different face altogether.
The potential for a Jat nominee has gained significance, especially after the opposition accused the BJP of being “anti-Jat” in light of Dhankhar’s exit. While the BJP appears to have a secure path to victory given its numbers, the opposition is expected to use this election as an opportunity for political messaging and to rally sympathy.
This election unfolds against the backdrop of a combative monsoon session of Parliament, during which the united opposition has repeatedly disrupted proceedings. This turmoil has forced the government to pass key bills amid chaos, and the remaining days of the session are anticipated to be equally tumultuous.
The election schedule is already established. The last date for nominations is August 21, coinciding with the final day of the monsoon session, while polling is set for September 9. Notably, the NDA plans to file its nomination on August 21, with all BJP Members of Parliament (MPs), Chief Ministers, and allies instructed to be present in Delhi. The ruling coalition aims to showcase its unity while also courting neutral parties such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress, and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS).
Numerically, the BJP’s position appears robust. Out of 782 MPs in both Houses, the BJP and its allies command the support of approximately 425 MPs—well above the halfway mark. This stronghold suggests that the NDA faces no significant obstacles to securing victory. The party’s focus, however, is on expanding its margin, with aspirations to replicate or exceed the scale of Jagdeep Dhankhar’s win in 2022.
In the previous election, the BJP successfully garnered support from neutral and opposition parties. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) abstained from voting, while parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), BJD, and YSR Congress extended their support to Dhankhar, allowing him to secure over 500 votes. In contrast, Congress candidate Margaret Alva was backed by only 182 MPs.
However, the political landscape has shifted since then. The BJP has strengthened its position in the Rajya Sabha, while the opposition has consolidated its power in the Lok Sabha under Congress’s leadership. Recently, Congress has engaged in “dinner diplomacy” to draw both TMC and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) closer, ensuring their participation in joint opposition initiatives.
The opposition is particularly united in its resistance to the revision of the Bihar voter list under the SIR system, which has become a rallying point for parties like TMC and AAP that seek to appeal to Muslim voters.
Neutral parties, however, remain a wildcard in this equation. In states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, the SIR issue holds little relevance, making the BJD, BRS, and YSR Congress less likely to align with the opposition. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy has recently accused his rival, Chandrababu Naidu, of colluding with Rahul Gandhi, further complicating the prospects of opposition alignment. While sudden shifts in political dynamics cannot be entirely ruled out, current signals suggest that these neutral players may ultimately support the NDA or choose to abstain.
The core question, therefore, is not whether the BJP’s candidate will win, but by what margin. The party is eager to secure a decisive mandate that surpasses Dhankhar’s victory, thereby reinforcing its image of political dominance and unity. Conversely, the opposition is determined to leverage the contest to highlight its own consolidation, particularly emphasizing Jat representation and farmer politics.
As the deadline for nominations approaches, the atmosphere is charged with speculation. This election promises to be less about the outcome and more about the political messaging from both sides.
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