The Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA, and AccuWeather have released their fall 2025 and winter 2025-2026 forecasts, suggesting a warmer-than-average season is on the horizon.
As summer winds down and pumpkin spice season approaches, attention turns to what the fall and winter months will bring. Weather predictions from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and AccuWeather indicate a trend towards warmer temperatures and variable precipitation across the United States for the upcoming fall and winter seasons.
The transition into fall is marked by the autumnal equinox, which will occur on Monday, September 22, 2025, in the Northern Hemisphere. This event, where the Earth’s equator aligns with the sun, brings equal hours of daylight and darkness. Just a few months later, on Sunday, December 21, 2025, the winter solstice will officially usher in the winter season.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its fall 2025 forecast on August 6, predicting warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average rainfall for the majority of the United States. Specifically for New Jersey and the Northeast, the Almanac forecasts that different regions will experience varying weather patterns. Most of New Jersey falls within the Atlantic Corridor, where warmer temperatures and less rainfall are expected in September and October. However, northern areas, such as Sussex County, are part of the Appalachian region and may see cooler and drier conditions.
Looking ahead to the winter of 2025-2026, The Old Farmer’s Almanac anticipates a possibly milder winter influenced by increased solar activity and the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions. These factors may lead to fluctuating jet streams and a potentially “wavy” polar vortex, contributing to varying temperature patterns and periodic bursts of cold air reaching southern regions.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center supports the notion of a warmer fall, projecting above-normal temperatures across much of the country. Their forecasts for New Jersey reveal a 40-60% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures from September to December, though precipitation levels are expected to remain typical. For the winter months, NOAA forecasts above-average temperatures for the southern and Eastern U.S., with New Jersey and the Northeast projected to have a 33-40% likelihood of experiencing above-average temperatures in December 2025 through February 2026.
AccuWeather’s fall outlook aligns with other predictions, anticipating lingering warm and humid air over many parts of the U.S. This could delay the onset of cooler, fall-like temperatures. Their forecast suggests above-average warmth in the West, with cooler transitions by late October in northern states such as the Dakotas and Minnesota. In New Jersey and the Northeast, the transition to fall will be gradual, with some severe weather potential from September through November. Wildfire risks are expected to be moderate, extending dry periods across the region.
Snow enthusiasts might look to late October for the first measurable snowfall in colder regions like the Rockies, with New York’s Catskills and higher elevations potentially seeing snow by late November, according to AccuWeather.
The amalgamation of these forecasts offers a detailed picture of what the coming months may hold, emphasizing the likelihood of warmer conditions and the interplay of varying climate influences across different regions.
According to Newsbreak,
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