Birth Rates Insufficient to Sustain Population Growth
New data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that without immigration, the U.S. birth rate will not be sufficient to maintain population levels. According to a report released Thursday, deaths have begun to outnumber live births in the U.S. since 2023, signaling a demographic shift that could lead to population decline.
Impact of Immigration Restrictions Under Trump Administration
The report’s findings come amid President Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions, which could further accelerate the decline in population. The projections, spanning 2025 through 2055, only consider policies in place as of January 6, 2025, and do not account for future changes under the Trump administration. Mass deportations could exacerbate the trend, leading to an even steeper population decline than projected.
Aging Population Poses Economic Challenges
With an aging population, workforce participation is expected to decrease, resulting in a higher proportion of Americans relying on entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The financial burden on these programs is set to grow, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio Set to Break Records
The report also warns that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach record levels by 2029, surpassing the previous high seen during World War II. Publicly held debt is expected to keep rising, reaching 156% of GDP by 2054. However, the deficit outlook has improved slightly compared to last year’s projections, thanks to spending policies enacted late in the Biden administration. Previously, the CBO estimated that U.S. debt would reach 168% of GDP by 2054, but the updated projection shows a lower debt trajectory.
Soaring Healthcare and Social Security Costs
Spending on major healthcare programs has historically accounted for 4.4% of GDP, but that figure is projected to nearly double to 8.1% by 2055. Similarly, Social Security costs—which have averaged 4.5% of GDP over the past 30 years—are expected to rise to 6.1% by 2055.
Declining Workforce Participation a Growing Concern
As the percentage of working-age Americans declines, the economy could face serious labor shortages and reduced economic productivity. Without sustained immigration or policy interventions, the shrinking workforce could further strain government resources and slow economic growth.