The choice of the next pope holds significant implications for the Catholic Church and its 1.4 billion baptized followers worldwide. Yet, the process to determine Pope Francis’s successor is expected to be unusually open and difficult to predict for several reasons.
The College of Cardinals, consisting of senior church officials, will gather in the Sistine Chapel for a conclave, where they will engage in discussions and then vote repeatedly until one candidate secures a majority. Although 80% of the cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis, their selections reflect diverse ideologies and backgrounds, rather than a singular “progressive” or “traditionalist” identity.
For the first time ever, less than half of the voting cardinals will be European, opening the door for non-European leadership. This diversity makes predicting the outcome more complicated than in past conclaves. Many are speculating whether the cardinals might choose an African or Asian pope, or possibly an experienced figure from the Vatican bureaucracy.
Among the potential frontrunners is Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, age 70. A quiet yet influential figure, Parolin served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State and acted as Pope Francis’s top aide. He has managed the Church’s central administration and is known for emphasizing diplomacy over strict doctrinal adherence. While some see this as a weakness, others consider it a strength. Still, Parolin has taken conservative positions, notably calling Ireland’s legalization of same-sex marriage in 2015 “a defeat for humanity.” Despite his prominence, he is aware of the saying, “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal,” underscoring the unpredictability of the process. While Italians have historically dominated the papacy, recent shifts suggest this may not be the case this time.
From Asia, Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines, 67, is another key contender. With extensive experience as a pastoral leader, he is often referred to as the “Asian Francis” for his social advocacy and compassion for migrants. Cardinal Tagle opposes abortion and euthanasia, labeling abortion “a form of murder.” However, in 2015, he called on the Church to soften its stance on gay people, divorced individuals, and single mothers, arguing that rigid attitudes had caused lasting harm. He emphasized that “each individual deserved compassion and respect.” A potential candidate in the 2013 conclave, Tagle previously said of such speculation, “I treat it like a joke! It’s funny.”
From Africa, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo, 65, emerges as a prominent figure. Serving as Archbishop of Kinshasa, he was appointed by Francis and is a strong conservative voice. He has rejected blessings for same-sex marriages, declaring that such unions “are considered contradictory to cultural norms and intrinsically evil.” Despite religious violence in his country, he has advocated for religious plurality: “Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We are going to work with them. But everyone has to keep their own identity.” This inclusive view may be seen as conflicting with some cardinals’ missionary outlook.
Another African candidate is Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson of Ghana, aged 76. Considered for the papacy in 2013, he was once the bookmakers’ favorite. In 2013, he said, “I’m not sure whether anyone does aspire to become a pope.” Although conservative, he has publicly opposed laws criminalizing homosexuality in African countries, stating during a 2023 BBC interview that “homosexuality should not be treated as an offence.” In 2012, he was criticized for alarmist remarks about Islam in Europe but later apologized. A former funk band guitarist, Turkson brings charisma and energy to the role.
From Europe, Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, 72, is respected in the continent and beyond. He led the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences for a decade and maintains connections with African clerics and Orthodox leaders. Known for his conservative values, Erdo also has experience navigating Hungary’s political landscape under Prime Minister Viktor Orban. During the 2015 migrant crisis, he controversially argued that welcoming refugees could constitute human trafficking.
Veteran Italian cardinal Angelo Scola, now 83, was a leading candidate in 2013 but ultimately wasn’t elected. Although over the age to vote, he remains eligible for selection. Recently, he published a book on old age with a preface written by Pope Francis, who remarked that “death is not the end of everything, but the beginning of something,” signaling his esteem for Scola. However, the focus on age may not appeal to cardinals seeking a dynamic new leader.
From Germany, Cardinal Reinhard Marx, 71, is a seasoned Vatican figure and former top adviser to Pope Francis. But in 2021 he offered to resign over serious mistakes in tackling child sexual abuse in Germany’s Catholic Church. In 2021, he offered to resign, acknowledging failures, but Francis declined. Two years ago, Marx stepped down from the Pope’s Council of Cardinals, which many interpreted as a career setback.
Another veteran is Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, who turned 80 and is therefore excluded from voting. Twice considered papal material in previous conclaves, he formerly oversaw the selection of bishops worldwide. A conservative, he has endorsed clerical celibacy and opposed women priests, though he has advocated more leadership roles for women, stating, “Christ is male, the Church is feminine.”
There’s also Cardinal Robert Prevost of the U.S., aged 69. Born in Chicago, he previously served as a missionary and archbishop in Peru. Two years ago, Pope Francis appointed him head of the Vatican office that selects bishops. He is viewed as a reformer, but his relative youth and past allegations of covering up abuse in Peru—denied by his diocese—could complicate his candidacy.
Among traditionalists, Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, 79, has deep conservative support. Once the Church’s youngest archbishop at age 34, he later led the Vatican’s liturgical office. Though retired, he remains influential among those wary of Francis’s reforms. Raised by a fruit-picker father, Sarah is respected for his doctrinal commitment.
From Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, brings unique geopolitical insight. Ordained in Italy but a longtime resident of Jerusalem, he has been Latin Patriarch for five years. His understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is unmatched, and he described the city as “the heart of the life of this world.” Yet his youth and close alignment with Francis may reduce his appeal to cardinals desiring change.
Lastly, Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78, born in former Czechoslovakia and raised in Canada, shares Francis’s Jesuit background. Active in Africa and Latin America, Czerny is known for his progressive work, such as founding the African Jesuit AIDS Network. He currently leads the Vatican’s social justice office. Although admired, the idea of back-to-back Jesuit popes may be a stretch.
As speculation continues, what remains clear is that the next pope could come from any corner of the globe, and the decision will shape the direction of the Church for decades to come.