Russia and Ukraine have signaled their commitment to halting hostilities in the Black Sea, but it remains uncertain whether an agreement will take effect soon—if at all.
Moscow attached a significant condition to the deal, stating it would comply only if restrictions on its agricultural exports were lifted. The penalties, imposed by the United States and the European Union, would require a complex negotiation process to reverse.
Additionally, Kyiv and Moscow appear to have differing interpretations of the U.S.-brokered agreement announced on Tuesday. While Russia views the deal as a means to revive a 2022 U.N.-backed accord granting it control over commercial shipping in the Black Sea, Ukraine has insisted it will not allow the Russian Navy back into the western Black Sea, its primary maritime trade route.
Violations and Mistrust Persist
The deep-seated mistrust between the two nations was evident on Wednesday as both sides accused each other of breaching the truce. Ukraine reported an attack on its port city of Mykolaiv, while Moscow claimed to have shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea.
Russia’s demands indicate that it is in no rush to end the conflict. With a sympathetic administration in the White House and the upper hand on the battlefield, Moscow appears determined to extract maximum concessions before considering a cease-fire.
Russia’s Conditions for Compliance
The Kremlin has made clear that it will not agree to the cease-fire unless its state agriculture bank and other financial institutions involved in food and fertilizer trade are reconnected to the international payment system, Swift.
Given that Swift is headquartered in Belgium, the U.S. would have to convince European regulators to approve such a move. The White House has stated that it will “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports.”
Moscow is also demanding that Western companies resume deliveries of agricultural equipment to Russia and that sanctions on its food and fertilizer companies, shipping vessels, and insurers be lifted.
Despite sanctions, Russia’s agricultural exports remain strong. The country’s grain and fertilizer trade reached $45 billion in 2023, and it continues to export record-high volumes, according to Andrei Sizov, director of the Russian consultancy SovEcon.
Some experts warn that lifting sanctions on a Russian state bank could allow the Kremlin to bypass broader financial restrictions. “The minute you have a sanctions-free bank, you can use it for whatever you want,” said Aleksandr Kolyandr, a Russia analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “It can be an instrument to crack the sanctions regime, but it is much easier to monitor just one bank.”
Ukraine’s Skepticism
While Kyiv has agreed to the maritime cease-fire, it remains wary of Moscow’s intentions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Russia’s demand for sanctions relief, stating it was “already trying to distort agreements.” He also expressed concerns that the U.S. commitment to facilitating Russian agricultural exports represented “a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions.”
With Russia’s demands and the conflicting interpretations of the deal, experts question what Ukraine stands to gain. Notably, the White House has not clarified whether the agreement would protect Ukrainian ports from Russian attacks or lead to the reopening of the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson—key objectives for Ukraine during negotiations.
Kyiv also has little interest in reviving the 2022 U.N.-backed grain deal that Russia favors. That agreement allowed Ukraine to export grain through a designated Black Sea corridor but also granted Russia the authority to inspect commercial vessels for weapons.
Andrii Klymenko, head of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, noted that these inspections significantly delayed exports, making the route unprofitable. Since Russia withdrew from the deal, Ukraine has established its own shipping corridor, pushing the Russian Navy out of the western Black Sea and restoring grain exports to near prewar levels.
A Fragile Path Forward
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in a phone conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days. Ukraine, which has advocated for a broader cease-fire, followed suit. Both nations have reaffirmed their commitment to the temporary moratorium on energy strikes.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin outlined which facilities would be protected under the agreement, including refineries, pipelines, storage sites, nuclear plants, hydroelectric dams, and energy transmission infrastructure. However, Russia excluded gas and oil extraction sites—facilities that Ukraine claims have been frequent targets of Russian attacks and that Kyiv had included in its own cease-fire proposal.
The situation underscores Moscow’s strategy of appearing open to negotiations while making minimal concessions.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov acknowledged the complexities of the deal, stating on Tuesday that “additional technical consultations” were necessary to effectively implement the energy and maritime cease-fires.
With key details unresolved and both sides skeptical of each other’s commitments, the viability of the cease-fire remains uncertain.