This summer is marked by extreme heat and wildfires, but scientists warn that the true impact of El Niño is yet to come, potentially leading to record-breaking temperatures in the near future.
Wildfires are raging across North America and Europe, while heat waves have settled over cities, pushing global temperatures to unprecedented levels for this time of year. As the El Niño phenomenon strengthens, experts predict it will significantly elevate global temperatures and disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
Recent reports highlighted devastating wildfires in France and Spain. In California, a six-alarm fire on August 2 damaged over 50 condominium units in Foster City, displacing approximately 150 residents. Firefighters battled the blaze, which spread rapidly through the residential complex, and remained on-site to monitor for flare-ups even after the fire was extinguished.
Fortunately, no residents were injured, although four firefighters suffered minor injuries, including burns and smoke inhalation. Two of them were hospitalized but have since been released and are expected to recover fully, according to Anthony Agresti, deputy chief of operations for the San Mateo Consolidated Fire Department. The cause of the fire is still under investigation.
Despite the intense heat this summer, it has not yet broken any records. Current climate statistics indicate that 2026 is the third-hottest year on record, trailing behind 2024 and 2025. However, scientists caution that as the year progresses, 2026 could potentially surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth noted that the likelihood of 2026 breaking the record is currently at 35%, a significant increase from just 7% in March. Former NASA climate scientist James Hansen has also predicted that 2026 will likely surpass 2024 by year’s end.
The world’s daily sea surface temperatures have been exceptionally high since May, with records being set nearly every day since June. Hansen explained that there is typically a lag of about a month and a half between the heat observed in the oceans and its reflection in global average temperatures. As a result, he anticipates that global temperature records will soon be shattered. Currently, about 82% of the world’s ocean surface is experiencing marine heat waves, according to Europe’s Copernicus climate service.
About a month ago, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected a 66% chance that 2026 would be the fourth hottest year, with only a 0.1% chance of it being the warmest. However, NOAA monitoring chief Russell Vose indicated that these odds are likely to increase as further analyses are conducted.
The changing forecasts are largely attributed to the anticipated strength of the upcoming El Niño, which is expected to be unprecedented. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that temporarily warms parts of the equatorial Pacific, leading to increased global temperatures and altered weather extremes. Most forecasts suggest that this El Niño could become the strongest on record. Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, emphasized that the oceans are currently holding more heat than ever due to greenhouse gas emissions.
This summer’s extreme heat cannot be attributed to El Niño, as its effects typically do not manifest until later in the year. Instead, scientists attribute the current heat waves and wildfires to human-induced climate change, which has been exacerbated by the burning of fossil fuels.
Labe explained that the primary driver of this summer’s record warmth is climate change, which has a much larger impact than the temporary effects of El Niño. He noted that the warming trend is accelerating, partly due to a decrease in traditional industrial pollution that previously helped cool the planet.
Heat waves this summer have struck regions unaccustomed to such extreme temperatures, particularly at night, which can disrupt sleep and negatively impact health and productivity. Samantha Burgess, global strategic lead at Copernicus climate service, highlighted the frequency and intensity of heat waves in Europe, noting that the continent has experienced multiple exceptional heat waves this year.
Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University, remarked that these conditions are a stark reminder of the ongoing impacts of climate change. He stated, “There’s no question that climate change has increased the risk of wildfires and the probability of unprecedented heat waves.”
As the world continues to grapple with the effects of climate change, scientists warn that the situation is likely to worsen in the coming years, with El Niño expected to exacerbate the already critical conditions.
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