Frail Biden’s NATO Summit Dominates Amid Fears of Trump Return

At his final NATO Summit, President Joe Biden, facing political and physical frailty, presides over an alliance at its strongest point. This juxtaposition hasn’t gone unnoticed among NATO officials from multiple European nations, who express alarm at Biden’s apparent decline and worry about a potential replacement by a hostile Donald Trump in November.

NATO officials are saddened by Biden’s deteriorating situation and frustrated that it detracts from what was meant to be a celebratory summit. They are increasingly resigned to his potential defeat in November, fearing it could halt or reverse the alliance’s recent progress, jeopardizing Ukraine’s defense against Russia and the broader stability that has been a cornerstone of NATO since its inception during the Cold War.

“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” a senior European diplomat said. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget or if he’ll say ‘North Korea’ when he meant ‘South Korea.’ It’s just a weird experience.”

As visiting leaders applauded Biden’s speech, they and their aides were acutely aware of the context. They noted the fallout from Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27, ongoing doubts among Democrats about his ability to defeat Trump, and the precariousness of his candidacy hinging on every word and step.

“He didn’t look good,” remarked a Washington-based diplomat from one of the European countries.

Biden’s solo press conference Thursday evening will be critical, both for him politically and for the alliance.

“We would prefer a more stable situation in the U.S.,” said an official granted anonymity.

The focus on Biden distracts from Trump and the implications of his potential return, which worries officials. Trump, who criticized NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and threatened to withdraw from the alliance, remains a significant concern.

“Everyone’s focusing on Biden’s appearance and less on Trump’s statements about NATO,” the senior European diplomat added. “He’s not that much younger.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referenced November’s presidential election as critical, urging NATO members to act with urgency and “not to wait for November.”

Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, noted that NATO allies are accelerating defense spending in response to the war in Ukraine and the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory.

“NATO allies understand that the probability of a Trump administration has gone up dramatically since the debate,” Daalder said. “That’s just a reality people have to deal with, so that means more outreach to the Trump camp in the short term and more determination by European allies to get to a place where those countries are doing more things on their own.”

During the first working session of NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, heads of state offered remarks focused on alliance unity and support for Ukraine. However, many faced awkward questions about Biden’s weakened political position and the implications of his potential electoral loss.

“I’m not going to comment on this topic,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, walking off after a brief statement. Other leaders responded with platitudes about respecting America’s democratic process and expressed faith that NATO would endure even if Trump returns to office.

Alexander Stubb, president of Finland, lamented the “toxic” level of U.S. political polarization but expressed optimism that Washington will continue to need European allies even if Trump wins.

“Of course we’re looking at elections throughout the world, and the American elections are very important,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “But let’s be extremely clear, it’s the American citizens who will make their choice and that is a choice we will respect.”

De Croo, who recently met with Biden, praised his speech before NATO leaders but avoided commenting on Biden’s shaky debate performance.

“It’s incredibly awkward for our allies to get asked these questions about Biden’s mental acuity,” said Brett Bruen, a former State Department official under Obama. “They have their prepared pivot points, but it isn’t easy.”

The NATO summit, ending Thursday, provided a distraction for Biden as he faces growing Democratic resistance to his reelection bid. Despite limited time for outreach to lawmakers and donors, his role on the world stage aimed to assuage doubts and remind political allies of the importance of experience and shared values.

His forceful opening speech emphasized NATO’s commitment to Ukraine and was well-received by lawmakers and pundits.

“Everyone was watching with bated breath as he took the stage,” said Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “He successfully quelled concerns because he came across as forceful and presidential. But his age and his ability to do this job for another four years are certainly questions European leaders are still asking themselves.”

Biden’s aides recognize the critical importance of avoiding public stumbles, particularly during Thursday’s news conference. Even so, the growing chorus of supporters urging him to end his campaign might prove insurmountable.

As Biden greeted 31 leaders and posed for photos, foreign diplomats closely monitored his movements and tone, waiting to see the version of the president they saw in the first debate.

Several leaders have addressed the possibility of Trump’s return, noting that 23 of 32 member nations have met or exceeded the defense spending goal, a major issue for Trump.

Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, recalled Trump’s criticism of NATO spending levels in 2018, suggesting that the notion of “Trump-proofing” the alliance should be seen as “future-proofing.”

“We have to understand it is in our own best interests to spend more…and that will give us an upper hand toward anyone in the White House,” Rasmussen said.

However, the focus on Biden may overshadow the broader message NATO leaders want to convey to the American public during this summit on U.S. soil.

“The Americans need to hear from us all that the problem is not Ukraine,” said Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže. “The problem is Russia.”

An anonymous official from a NATO country expressed concern that the summit’s substantive actions might not resonate with a U.S. audience.

“All the Americans are looking for at this summit is the photo op of Biden with allies,” the official said. “We’re really concerned that the world will essentially be leaderless for the next several months, and then we don’t know what comes after that.”

The prospect of Trump leading NATO’s most indispensable member country again creates deep anxiety among officials and heads of state, despite confident statements about maintaining recent momentum.

“I am hoping, praying for, expecting the transatlantic alliance will be strong and alive also in the coming years,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. “Hopefully, no matter what happens in the U.S., that will be the case.”

Many officials now believe Biden will not be reelected if he remains in the race. Estonia’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, addressed the uncertainty of future U.S. support for Ukraine, speaking of Trump’s return as a foregone conclusion.

“I would like to see what the new administration will do,” Pevkur said. “What happens in January when the new president takes office?”