Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah Brings Hope Amid Skepticism

In a dramatic turn of events, celebratory gunfire erupted in Beirut late Tuesday as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah took effect after over 14 months of intense conflict. The truce, brokered by the United States and France, began at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday. Despite the agreement, fighting persisted until the last moment, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Lebanon through the night.

The truce, however, showed signs of vulnerability early on. Hours into the ceasefire, the Israeli military reported firing at individuals in a restricted area along the border, later identified as Hezbollah operatives. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, stated, “They were Hezbollah operatives in a border village.”

In a joint statement, U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the significance of the agreement. “This deal will cease the fighting in Lebanon and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” they declared, adding that it “will create the conditions to restore lasting calm and allow residents in both countries to return safely to their homes along the border.”

The conflict was reignited when Hezbollah began launching rockets into northern Israel in support of Hamas, following the latter’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The hostilities escalated further eight weeks ago, as Israel initiated a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, aiming to dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities. According to Lebanese health officials, the conflict has claimed over 3,700 lives in Lebanon, while Israeli authorities report around 80 deaths in northern Israel.

The prolonged fighting has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, displacing over 1.2 million Lebanese—roughly a fifth of the population—according to the United Nations. Meanwhile, approximately 60,000 Israelis have fled northern communities to escape Hezbollah’s rockets.

Israeli airstrikes, intensified over recent months, inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon’s infrastructure and homes, while targeting top Hezbollah officials, including its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, southern commander Mohammed Nasser, and missile expert Ibrahim Qubaisi. Reflecting on these developments, Randa Slim from the Middle East Institute noted, “Israel has achieved its military objectives, primarily eliminating Hezbollah infrastructure. They have wiped out their military command council, as well as their senior political leadership. These are severe blows to Hezbollah, which will take a long time to recover from.”

Despite warnings from the Israeli military, many Lebanese began returning to their southern villages. Among them was Patricia Taleb, 24, who drove back to her abandoned home, expressing cautious optimism. “We know that this is the end days of the war. We know that ultimately it’s going to be OK,” she said.

In contrast, Israeli authorities are advising displaced residents to delay their return. Education Minister Yoav Kisch explained on Israel Army Radio that there would be a 30- to 60-day period to repair buildings and institutions damaged by Hezbollah’s attacks before residents could return.

Orna Peretz, displaced from Kiryat Shmona near the Israel-Lebanon border, shared a mixed perspective. “Hezbollah has been taught a lesson it never endured in its entire lifetime,” Peretz said. “There is a good deal here that had to come because of international pressure. And we have somewhere to return to. The Lebanese have nowhere to return to.”

The ceasefire agreement outlines a phased withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the area south of the Litani River within 60 days, creating a buffer zone. Similarly, Israeli forces will retreat to their side of the border. To maintain security, thousands of Lebanese government troops and UN peacekeepers from UNIFIL will be deployed to the area. A U.S.-led international panel will oversee compliance with the agreement.

The deal also mandates that Lebanese authorities prevent Hezbollah and other armed groups from launching attacks on Israel. It stipulates that only Lebanon’s military and security forces may operate in southern Lebanon, while barring the rearmament of non-state groups. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesperson, warned of strict enforcement. “Any violation of the ceasefire will be met with fire,” he said, underscoring Israel’s readiness to respond to breaches.

Shalom Lipner of the Atlantic Council highlighted the importance of enforcement. “The stated intent is that at the smallest infraction, they will go through the motions of reporting this to the supervisory committee. If Israel doesn’t get satisfaction, they will take action on their own,” he explained.

The ceasefire received a cautious welcome from Iran, a key supporter of Hezbollah. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei expressed hope for an end to “aggression against Lebanon,” reaffirming Tehran’s support for Lebanon’s government, people, and resistance. Jordan and Egypt also praised the truce, with Egypt’s Foreign Ministry calling for de-escalation in the region and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Gaza. Saudi Arabia echoed these sentiments, emphasizing Lebanon’s sovereignty and the safe return of displaced individuals.

Despite the ceasefire, skepticism lingers. Avraham Moreno, displaced from the border village of Shlomi, voiced uncertainty. “This deal, we still know nothing about it,” he said. “We have very, very mixed feelings, even though we really want to return home.”

Concerns were also raised in Gaza, where residents fear a prolonged conflict. Wala Hanuna, 34, displaced by Israel’s offensive in Gaza, expressed apprehension. “We read the news that the Israeli army fighting in Lebanon will go now to Gaza,” she said. “Maybe the war here will last another year, with no one thinking how we will get out of this.”

Hamas, meanwhile, praised Hezbollah’s support for Gaza, acknowledging sacrifices such as the death of Nasrallah. However, David Wood of Crisis Group pointed out that displaced Lebanese may face challenges returning home, as entire villages near the border have been destroyed.

Humanitarian agencies highlight the severe impact of the conflict. The UNHCR reported overcrowded shelters and limited access to southern Lebanon, where over 188,000 people are housed in government-designated facilities. UNICEF emphasized the devastating toll on children, with over 240 killed and approximately 1,400 injured. In a statement, UNICEF expressed hope that the ceasefire would enable families to return safely to their communities, urging efforts to sustain peace.

As the ceasefire takes effect, the region remains on edge, with hopes for peace tempered by memories of devastation and an awareness of the fragile nature of the truce.