China recently urgently asked the US to abandon its first-use policy and dismantle its nuclear missile shield. Instead, China insisted that the US sign the No First Use policy.
Climbing the high moral pedestals
I would have been convinced about this had this proposal come from Bhutan. Of all the nations, the bully of South China, the reckless Covid contaminator, the genocider of the Xinjiang Muslim, the debt trap diplomat, the intellectual property thief, the megalomaniac, the aggrandizer, the suppressor and violator of human rights, the occupant of Tibet – finally found a pulpit to ask the US to take back its arsenals, and sign the nuclear nonproliferation.
An eye on Taiwan
This sudden escalation on the moral pulpit is not for taking any humanitarian, moral high grounds. China seems to have played the war scenario across the Taiwan Strait and reoccupation of Taiwan, and it has realized the American resolve to defend Taiwan; it has realized that there are no nuclear players (barring North Korea) in Southeast Asia.
The US Nuclear Missile Shield
By asking the US to dismantle its nuclear missile shield and revoke its First Use Policy, China is demonstrating its concern about US dominance and defeat. An urge of this scale reveals China’s weakness, not Sun Xu’s philosophy of war tactics. It realizes the QUAD and the local alliance in Southeast Asia with Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia are likely the biggest obstacles to reoccupying Taiwan.
Why Taiwan?
Enough water has flown down since the two countries separated three generations ago. Apart from ethnic genetic stock, the two countries are not very similar. One is an authoritarian dictator, the other a mature beacon of democracy. One is stringently invested in human rights, whereas the other is invested in debasing human rights. One dominates the chip market (and eventually, the AI usurped technology), whereas the giant lampoons mediocrity with all sorts of perverse IP thefts. One has a thriving economy with a prosperous working class, and the other has a managed economy in decadence. If you think the Chinese are one ethnic stalk, let me correct you by reminding you that China is comprised of Zhuang, Hui, Miao, Manchus, Tujia, Mongols, Buyei, Dong, Yao, and the Bai are just a few of the ethnic stocks, from China. If you presume language is the binding factor, other than Mandarin, people commonly speak Mandarin, Min, Wu, Yue, and Ji, not to mention Cantonese.
By acquiring Taiwan, the CCP knows that it is the first battleground for establishing absolute hegemony in the region and globally. The only thing that comes in the way is the Nuclear Dome built by the US.
What should the US do?
Trump or no Trump, the US will lean on its established lesson of dealing with similar scenarios. In 1987, it placed intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Europe. The USSR came to its knees and signed the treaty to abolish the IRBM.
The US will arm Japan, South Korea, and Australia. By doing so, the deterrence from owning nuclear warheads will recede, and many players will be on a level playing field.
The world is getting increasingly complex to manage. However, the pathway to reconciliation goes via nuclear armament and arming Japan, South Korea, and possibly Taiwan with nuclear warheads.
Shashank Heda, MD
Dallas, Texas
July 26, 2024
Note: These are the author’s views and are not in alliance with any think tank.
