As 100 Days Remain in Tumultuous Election, Key Questions Loom Over VP Picks, Debates, and Polls

With Sunday marking 100 days until voters cast their ballots in what has already been a turbulent election cycle, the coming months are anticipated to be just as unpredictable. The presidential race has experienced dramatic changes in under a month, including President Biden’s disappointing debate performance, the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and Biden’s subsequent withdrawal from the race in favor of endorsing Vice President Harris.

As we approach the final 100 days, attention turns to several key developments:

Who Will Harris Choose as VP?

As Harris appears set to become the Democratic nominee, the spotlight now shifts to her choice of running mate. Politicians such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz have all been asked to provide vetting materials.

The vice-presidential pick will be crucial in shaping the campaign against Senator JD Vance, Trump’s running mate. Beshear has emerged as a vocal critic since Biden’s exit, branding Vance as a “phony” who is not “one of us,” referring to people from Appalachia. Kelly has also targeted Vance over his position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and previous controversial remarks about “childless cat ladies” running the country.

Democratic strategists argue that many of the potential vice-presidential candidates could significantly enhance the party’s appeal and performance in crucial states like Pennsylvania. The suggested picks seem to be more moderate, potentially balancing the ticket ideologically.

“Each of those candidates is going to bring new voters along with them, whereas Vance’s selection did the opposite,” commented Democratic strategist Jeff Rusnak, suggesting that Vance appeals primarily to “extreme” conservatives.

Will Trump and Harris Debate?

Biden’s lackluster performance in what turned out to be a historic debate prompted a series of events leading to his withdrawal and Harris stepping into the spotlight. Although Biden and Trump had agreed to a second debate scheduled for September on ABC, the future of this event remains uncertain.

The Biden campaign had previously indicated that Harris had accepted an invitation for a vice-presidential debate from CBS News in August. However, the Trump campaign has been hesitant to commit, citing uncertainty about the Democratic ticket.

Trump has criticized ABC for its role in hosting the debate, accusing the network of bias and suggesting that Fox News should host the next one. He stated, “I hope for ‘many’ debates,” despite his campaign’s reluctance to finalize a debate date with Harris until the Democrats formally select their nominee.

Harris has responded by expressing her readiness, accusing Trump of “backpedaling” on their previous agreement. “I have agreed to the previously agreed upon Sept. 10 debate. He agreed to that previously,” Harris told reporters. “Now, here he is backpedaling, and I’m ready, and I think the voters deserve to see the split screen that exists in this race on a debate stage, and so I’m ready. Let’s go.”

How Will Polls Evolve?

Prior to the debate, Trump and Biden’s polling numbers were largely stagnant, with the two candidates nearly tied nationally and Trump slightly ahead in key battleground states. Since Biden’s exit, polling models have paused for more data to assess the current race dynamics. The shift from Biden to Harris follows a series of dramatic events, including an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, and Biden’s unprecedented decision not to seek reelection close to Election Day.

Nominating conventions typically provide a temporary boost to a candidate’s poll numbers, and with multiple significant events converging, the effects on the race are uncertain.

“This was thought to be a sleepy grudge match between two cranky old men, and now it has become a red-hot race again,” remarked Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “Nothing has changed, but everything has changed.”

Early polling suggests Harris might be gaining ground against Trump in critical states. Surveys indicate improved standings in traditionally blue states like New Hampshire and Maine, which Republicans had started to target.

The Trump campaign’s pollster predicted a temporary “Harris Honeymoon” period where she would benefit from increased media coverage, but this is expected to level out once the race stabilizes. He emphasized that the “fundamentals” of the race remain unchanged.

Democrats acknowledge the race will remain close but express renewed optimism following the switch to Harris. “I think what we’ve seen is it’s going to be an enormously close race,” said Democratic strategist Justin Barasky. “I don’t think that’s changed. I don’t think anyone, especially with the campaign, would say anything differently, but it’s clear that Republicans are concerned, and I’d rather be us than them.”

What Other Surprises Might Occur?

With Election Day still over three months away and Labor Day not yet arrived, there is ample time for additional developments that could impact the election. Both Trump and Biden were set to be the oldest major party nominees in history, increasing the possibility of health-related issues affecting the race, a scenario that still applies to Trump.

Following the shooting at a Trump rally, both parties have called for a reduction in political rhetoric to decrease the intensity of the political climate. However, both sides continue to attack each other, suggesting a return to a more contentious environment.

Both campaigns are now adjusting to the new political reality. Harris, who was already a vice-presidential candidate, is now preparing for a presidential run with just 100 days to go. Meanwhile, Trump, who has been campaigning for over a year and a half, must now refocus his messaging to target Harris instead of Biden.

Republican strategist Nicole Schlinger pointed out that Harris is not a “unknown quantity” due to her time as vice president, which means the GOP can leverage existing research. “All of that research was already being done and so we don’t start from zero,” she noted.

“Will having Kamala Harris at the top of a ticket, will that change which states are in play, and perhaps where we deploy some of our voter contact resources?” Schlinger added. “So I think some of those decisions will be carefully analyzed, but in terms of the overall message and the direction of the campaign, she’s already a known factor.”