U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, and nearly 60 world leaders and policymakers are set to gather in Munich for the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC) over the next three days.
For nearly two decades, this event has been a focal point for global security discussions, but this year, the stakes appear higher than ever. A senior Western official described the current global security climate as “the most dangerous and contested time” of their career.
Cracks in the International Order
The established global security structure, often referred to as the International Rules-based Order, is facing unprecedented strain. Some argue it is already beginning to collapse.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, much of the world condemned the move. NATO, the European Union, and Western nations demonstrated remarkable unity in supporting Ukraine, ensuring it could defend itself without direct Western military intervention.
While Hungary and Slovakia occasionally expressed reservations, there was broad consensus that Putin’s invasion needed to fail to prevent Russia from further aggression, possibly against NATO members like Estonia. The prevailing belief was that Ukraine should receive whatever it needed to achieve a strong negotiating position for lasting peace.
U.S. Shifts Policy on Ukraine
However, that unity has begun to fray. Former President Donald Trump has significantly undermined Ukraine’s stance by declaring—through his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—that restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “not realistic.” Additionally, the U.S. has dismissed Kyiv’s aspirations for NATO membership, a key goal for President Zelensky, and ruled out sending troops to defend Ukraine from potential future Russian invasions.
Further rattling Western allies, Trump recently held a cordial 90-minute phone call with Putin, abruptly ending a three-year diplomatic freeze. This shift in U.S. policy suggests a preference for quickly ending the war, even if it means meeting many of Moscow’s demands.
Over the coming days in Munich, Trump’s team is expected to outline their plans for Ukraine, with retired U.S. Army General Keith Kellogg traveling to Kyiv next week for further discussions. However, a clear rift has emerged between Washington and Europe. While the U.S. prioritizes ending the war swiftly, European leaders had, until recently, believed that sustained pressure on Moscow—amid significant Russian battlefield casualties and economic struggles—could secure a more favorable peace for Ukraine.
NATO’s Growing Divisions
Beyond Ukraine, other cracks are emerging within NATO. Trump’s recent announcement of his interest in “buying” Greenland—an autonomous territory of Denmark—has sparked fresh tensions. When Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen firmly stated that “Greenland is not for sale,” Trump reportedly reacted with a “horrendous” phone call and did not rule out using force to take the territory.
The notion of a NATO country threatening to seize another member’s land was once unthinkable. In Greenland’s case, U.S. security interests are already well-served, as the island hosts more American troops than Danish forces, and Copenhagen has been open to strengthening mutual defense arrangements.
While many in Scandinavia hope Trump’s proposal is mere rhetoric, the broader damage is already done. His remarks signal a troubling precedent—that using force against neighbors for territorial gain is acceptable.
Former UK National Security Adviser and Ambassador to Washington, Lord Kim Darroch, warned that Trump’s threats against Denmark—whether economic or military—send a dangerous message. “Even if nothing comes from it, it’s done great damage. It’s another signal of Trump’s disdain for NATO. And it will be interpreted in Moscow and Beijing as a message that they have a free hand in Ukraine and Taiwan respectively,” he said.
At the Munich Security Conference, European allies will seek reassurance from Washington that NATO remains strong. However, Trump appears determined to reshape America’s global role and seems unlikely to heed European concerns.