On Saturday, the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman posted a message on social media warning residents in the ‘D5’ area of northern Gaza to evacuate. D5 is part of a grid created by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), dividing Gaza into sections. This particular area consists of numerous smaller subdivisions. The message, one in a series, declared, “The IDF is operating with great force against the terrorist organisations and will continue to do so for a long time. The designated area, including the shelters located there, is considered a dangerous combat zone. The area must be evacuated immediately via Salah al-Din Road to the humanitarian area.”
A map accompanied the message, showing a yellow arrow directing people from block D5 southward through Salah al-Din Road, the main north-south route in Gaza. However, the message did not provide any indication of when or if displaced residents could return to their homes, which have been repeatedly bombed over the past year. The underlying message seemed to be that military operations would persist, with the IDF planning to use “great force… for a long time,” suggesting that residents should not expect to return anytime soon.
The designated humanitarian zone in the message refers to al-Mawasi, an area near Rafah that was once an agricultural region. Today, it is densely populated and, despite its designation, not necessarily safer than other parts of Gaza. The BBC has tracked at least 18 airstrikes on al-Mawasi, indicating that it remains under threat.
Hamas has also been sending its own messages to the roughly 400,000 residents still in northern Gaza. Before the conflict escalated, the area was a thriving urban hub with a population of 1.4 million. Hamas has instructed residents not to evacuate, arguing that the south is equally dangerous and warning that they might not be permitted to return to the north.
Despite the risks, many residents have chosen to remain in northern Gaza, undeterred by ongoing Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire. Some stay to care for vulnerable relatives, while others have familial ties to Hamas. It’s important to note that under the laws of war, being related to Hamas members does not automatically classify someone as a combatant.
In an effort to escape the violence without moving to the overcrowded and dangerous south, some civilians have tried relocating within northern Gaza, for instance, from Beit Hanoun to Gaza City. These movements tend to occur when IDF forces are near their homes, and once the army moves on, they return. However, according to BBC journalists in contact with Palestinians in Gaza, the IDF is attempting to prevent this tactic, instead directing people exclusively down Salah al-Din Road towards the south.
Journalists are largely prohibited from entering Gaza, except for brief, supervised visits coordinated by the IDF. Nonetheless, Palestinian reporters who were already in Gaza when the conflict reignited on 7 October continue their work under perilous conditions. The Committee to Protect Journalists has reported that at least 128 Palestinian media workers have been killed since the war began. Despite the danger, they continue documenting the war, capturing scenes of families, often with small children, fleeing in panic.
One reporter shared a brief interview with Manar al-Bayar, a woman fleeing Jabalia refugee camp with her toddler. “They told us we had five minutes to leave the Fallujah school. Where do we go? In southern Gaza, there are assassinations. In western Gaza, they’re shelling people. Where do we go, oh God? God is our only chance,” she said while rushing down the street.
The journey southward is perilous. According to Palestinian accounts, some civilians have been fired upon by the IDF while trying to evacuate. The IDF claims that its soldiers follow strict engagement rules, which adhere to international humanitarian law. However, Liz Allcock, head of protection for Medical Aid for Palestinians, argued that evidence from wounded civilians suggests otherwise. “When we’re receiving patients in hospitals, a large number of those women and children and people of, if you like, non-combatant age are receiving direct shots to the head, to the spine, to the limbs, very indicative of the direct targeted attack,” she said.
As the fighting escalates, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens. According to reports from hospitals in northern Gaza, facilities are running dangerously low on fuel to power generators that sustain medical equipment and keep critically wounded patients alive. Some hospitals have also reported that they have been directly targeted in Israeli attacks.
There is growing suspicion among Palestinians, the United Nations, and aid organizations that the IDF is partially or fully implementing a strategy known as the “Generals’ Plan,” which was formulated by a group of retired Israeli officers, including Maj-Gen (ret) Giora Eiland. This plan aims to put increasing pressure on the population of northern Gaza in an effort to force Hamas, particularly its leader Yahya Sinwar, into surrendering.
The Generals’ Plan calls for civilians to be evacuated southward through corridors to areas beyond Wadi Gaza, a stream that has become a dividing line since Israel’s invasion in October. Eiland believes that after a year of war, Israel has not met its goals of dismantling Hamas and freeing hostages, and this new tactic could break the deadlock.
In Eiland’s view, Israel should have immediately sought a deal to secure the release of hostages, even if it meant withdrawing from Gaza. Now, he argues, stronger measures are needed. In an interview, he outlined the plan’s core components: “Since we already encircled the northern part of Gaza in the past nine or 10 months, what we should do is… tell all the 300,000 residents [the UN estimates 400,000]… that they have to leave this area… And after that time, all this area will become to be a military zone… all the Hamas people… whether some of them are fighters, some of them are civilians… will have two choices, either to surrender or to starve.”
Eiland’s plan would see the IDF sealing off areas after the evacuation period, treating anyone who remained behind as an enemy combatant and cutting off supplies of food and water. He believes such pressure would eventually cause Hamas to collapse, freeing hostages and allowing Israel to declare victory.
The United Nations’ World Food Programme has already warned that the ongoing offensive is having a “disastrous impact on food security” in Gaza. With major crossing points closed, no food aid has entered northern Gaza since 1 October. Bakeries and mobile kitchens have shut down due to airstrikes, and the only bakery supported by WFP in the north was set ablaze after being hit by an explosive. The situation in the south is similarly dire.
While it’s uncertain if the IDF has officially adopted the Generals’ Plan, many aspects of the current strategy align with its principles. When questioned by the BBC, the IDF declined to comment on the specifics of their tactics.
In Israeli political circles, there are voices, particularly among ultra-nationalist members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, who support permanently settling Jewish communities in northern Gaza. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been vocal, saying, “Our heroic fighters and soldiers are destroying the evil of Hamas, and we will occupy the Gaza Strip… to tell the truth, where there is no settlement, there is no security.”