Global Population to Reach 9.7 Billion by 2050 as World’s Smallest Nations Face Unique Demographic Challenges

The global population is expected to continue growing steadily, projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and potentially peaking at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to the United Nations. This forecasted increase represents a rise of almost 2 billion people within the next 30 years.

In 2023, India, with an estimated population of 1.4286 billion, slightly surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country, as noted in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of the World Population Report. Experts attribute this growth to “population momentum” from previous decades and predict that India’s population will likely begin to decline around 2050. This trend is also expected to apply to the global population, which currently stands slightly above 8 billion.

Recognizing the importance of understanding population dynamics, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) observes World Population Day annually on July 11th. In 2024, the theme will be “Investing in data collection is important to understanding problems, tailoring solutions, and driving progress.”

While India and China are the most populous countries, each with over 1 billion people, there are countries with significantly smaller populations. For example, Vatican City is the least populated country globally due to various factors including its limited land area, geographical isolation, resource constraints, cultural preservation efforts, political status, and historical factors.

The world’s top 10 least-populated countries as of 2024 are:

1. Vatican City

With a population of just 764, Vatican City is the smallest internationally recognized independent state. This is due to its tiny land area of just 49 hectares, strict citizenship requirements that limit new residents, and its unique status as the spiritual and administrative center of the Catholic Church rather than a typical country.

2. Tokelau

A group of three remote atolls in the South Pacific, Tokelau’s isolated location and limited land area of just 26 square kilometers naturally constrain its population, which numbers around 1,915 people. The lack of airports and accessibility only by boat from Samoa further contribute to Tokelau’s small population.

3. Niue

This self-governing island country, in free association with New Zealand, has a tiny land area of just 260 square kilometers. Its remote Pacific location and lack of major economic opportunities limit population growth, with the country home to about 1,935 people.

4. Falkland Islands

As a British Overseas Territory in the South Atlantic, the Falkland Islands’ isolated position and harsh sub-Antarctic climate make it an unattractive destination for large-scale settlement. With a population closer to 3,500, the islands’ economy is heavily dependent on fishing and tourism.

5. Montserrat

This Caribbean island nation has a small population of an estimated 4,372 people, largely due to a devastating volcanic eruption in the 1990s that destroyed much of the island and forced many residents to flee. The country’s limited land area and ongoing volcanic activity continue to constrain population growth.

6. Saint Pierre and Miquelon

This French territorial collectivity in the North Atlantic has a population of around 5,815 people. Its remote location off the coast of Canada and lack of economic opportunities beyond fishing and tourism contribute to its small population size.

7. Saint Barthélemy

As a French overseas collectivity in the Caribbean, Saint Barthélemy’s tiny land area of just 25 square kilometers and focus on luxury tourism rather than large-scale industry or agriculture limit its population, which stands approximately at 11,019.

8. Wallis and Futuna

This French overseas territory in the South Pacific consists of three small volcanic islands with a total land area of just 142 square kilometers. Its remote location and lack of major economic activities result in a population closer to 11,439 people.

9. Tuvalu

This Pacific island nation, comprising nine small atolls, has a population of merely 11,478 people. Its tiny land area of 26 square kilometers and isolation from major trade routes and economic centers contribute to its status as one of the least populated countries in the world.

10. Nauru

As the world’s smallest republic, Nauru’s total land area of just 21 square kilometers and its remote location in Micronesia limits its population to roughly 12,884 people. The country’s economic challenges and lack of natural resources also hinder population growth.

Understanding population dynamics is essential for planning and resource allocation. Smaller populations face unique challenges and opportunities, often influenced by geographical, economic, and political factors. As the world’s population continues to grow, the experiences of both the most and least populated countries provide valuable insights into global demographic trends and their implications.