The global birth rate has significantly declined over the past 50 years, raising concerns about long-term population sustainability and economic implications.
In the last five decades, the global fertility landscape has undergone a profound transformation, shifting from steady growth to a universal trend of declining birth rates. In 1970, the average woman worldwide had five children, a figure that has now decreased to 2.2 in 2024.
This decline raises critical questions about population sustainability. Generally, countries need a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per person capable of giving birth to maintain long-term generational replacement. The current global average fertility rate hovers perilously close to this threshold, with several major economies experiencing rates significantly below it. For instance, in the United States, the TFR has plummeted from 3.5 in the 1960s to 1.6 in 2024. Similarly, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the rate has dropped from 4.5 children per woman in the 1970s to 1.9 today. Asia averages 2.1, but China has recorded a historically low TFR of approximately 1.09 births per woman.
According to a study published in The Lancet, which examined global fertility trends across 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2021, fertility rates are declining globally. The study noted that more than half of all countries and territories had fertility rates below replacement level in 2021. It further predicts that fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide, remaining low even with the successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes are expected to have significant economic and societal consequences, particularly in higher-income countries facing aging populations and shrinking workforces.
Concerns regarding declining birth rates were addressed by a panel of experts during a briefing hosted by American Community Media on December 12. The panel included Dr. Ana Langer, Director of the Women and Health Initiative at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Anu Madgavkar, Partner at the McKinsey Global Institute; and Dr. Philip Cafaro, Associate Professor of Philosophy at Colorado State University.
Dr. Langer highlighted various factors contributing to the global decline in fertility rates, examining both individual and societal influences. These include demographic characteristics, cultural factors, and socio-economic conditions such as the availability and cost of housing, childcare, and education. She pointed out that the average American family spends up to 16% of their income on daycare for one child. With rising costs for essentials like food and housing, many families prioritize jobs and income over having children. Surveys indicate that experiences with difficult pregnancies and a general unease about the state of the world contribute to this trend. Over a quarter of respondents expressed concerns about overpopulation and climate change, which make them hesitant to raise children in an already troubled environment.
Attempts to reverse declining birth rates through pro-natal public policies have largely proven ineffective. For example, in response to declining population growth after decades of the one-child policy, China introduced a two-child policy in 2015 and later a three-child policy in 2021. Despite implementing financial incentives, tax benefits, childcare support, and other measures, these initiatives have met with limited success, according to Dr. Langer.
Anu Madgavkar discussed the economic implications of demographic changes resulting from shrinking fertility rates. Her research, titled “Dependency and Depopulation? Confronting the Consequences of a New Demographic Reality,” outlines several potential consequences for the global economy. She predicts slower economic growth, with a reduction in per capita GDP growth by approximately half a percentage point in the coming decades due to a population characterized by “youth scarcity.” This demographic shift means a smaller share of working-age individuals (ages 15-64) and a growing number of people over 65.
Currently, there are about four working-age individuals available to support each person over 65. However, by 2050, this ratio could drop to just two, necessitating increased productivity to create sufficient economic surplus to support an aging population. The share of working-age individuals has already peaked and is declining in many countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and the United States. While many developing countries, such as those in Latin America and India, have not yet reached their peak share of working-age individuals, they are approaching that point rapidly.
Madgavkar also noted that there is potential for increased productivity through advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. She emphasized that while more than half of all work hours in the U.S. economy could be automated, this does not mean that the workforce can be reduced by 50%. Upskilling workers to effectively use AI tools will be essential for maximizing productivity and economic growth.
On a social level, the impact of a shrinking population is evident in the quality of care provided to the elderly. Madgavkar suggested that as families become smaller, there may be a shift in the social contract regarding elder care, moving responsibility from public systems to family support for aging individuals.
Dr. Philip Cafaro raised concerns about the environmental implications of population decline and the role of immigration in population growth. He argued that the rapid growth of the global population—over 8.2 billion today compared to around 2 billion in 1925—has contributed significantly to environmental degradation. Cafaro cautioned against the notion that a slight reduction in global economic growth due to low fertility rates is a primary concern. Instead, he emphasized the risks associated with continued high rates of economic growth, which can further harm the global ecosystem.
Cafaro proposed that to move toward a more sustainable future, society should embrace population decline, particularly in developed countries where fertility rates are at or below replacement levels. He urged a reevaluation of the implications of both growing and shrinking populations on preserving essential ecosystem services.
This article was written with support from the American Community Media Fellowship Program.